Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs UT Martin Skyhawks

This NCAAB matchup features Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (17-11 (9-4)) traveling to take on UT Martin Skyhawks (20-8 (11-2)) at Kathleen and Tom Elam Center, Martin, TN. The UT Martin hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the SE Missouri by 3.8 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, UT Martin averages 79.3 points per game, which exceeds what the SE Missouri defense typically allows (70.9 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The SE Missouri offense puts up 77.1 PPG and faces a UT Martin defense allowing 69.3 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and UT Martin will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects UT Martin to win by approximately 6.5 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from UT Martin winning by 19 to losing by 6. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

UT Martin has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 20-8 (11-2) record. Their 20-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. They've been solid on both ends of the floor and will look to continue that form in front of their home fans. SE Missouri sits at 17-11 (9-4) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.