21 Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs

This NCAAB matchup features No. 21 Louisville Cardinals (19-7 (13-2)) traveling to take on SMU Mustangs (18-8 (14-2)) at Moody Coliseum (Dallas), Dallas, TX. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, SMU averages 78.8 points per game, which exceeds what the Louisville defense typically allows (69.0 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Louisville offense puts up 79.6 PPG and faces a SMU defense allowing 69.6 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and SMU will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 2.9-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from SMU winning by 16 to losing by 10. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

SMU enters at 18-8 (14-2), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. Louisville comes in with an impressive 19-7 (13-2) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.