Grand Canyon Lopes vs San Diego State Aztecs

This NCAAB matchup features Grand Canyon Lopes (17-9 (11-3)) traveling to take on San Diego State Aztecs (18-7 (12-2)) at Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, San Diego St averages 79.4 points per game, which exceeds what the Grand Canyon defense typically allows (70.2 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Grand Canyon offense puts up 78.1 PPG and faces a San Diego St defense allowing 69.2 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and San Diego St will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects San Diego St to win by approximately 5.5 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from San Diego St winning by 18 to losing by 7. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

San Diego St has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 18-7 (12-2) record. Their 18-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. They've been solid on both ends of the floor and will look to continue that form in front of their home fans. Grand Canyon sits at 17-9 (11-3) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.