Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs SMU Mustangs

This NCAAB matchup features Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-14 (8-5)) traveling to take on SMU Mustangs (17-7 (13-2)) at Moody Coliseum (Dallas), Dallas, TX. The SMU hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Notre Dame by 9.4 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, SMU averages 79.2 points per game, which exceeds what the Notre Dame defense typically allows (73.4 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Notre Dame offense puts up 73.8 PPG and faces a SMU defense allowing 69.4 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and SMU will look to leverage their home crowd. The SMU are heavy favorites in this one, with our model projecting a 10.2-point advantage. The 68% confidence interval ranges from SMU winning by 23 to losing by 2. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

SMU has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 17-7 (13-2) record. Their 17-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. They've been solid on both ends of the floor and will look to continue that form in front of their home fans. It's been a difficult season for Notre Dame at 11-14 (8-5). Traveling to face SMU presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.