New Orleans Pelicans vs LA Clippers
Monday, November 9, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor here is the shooting profile, which heavily favors the Pelicans. The Clippers have shot 38.194 percent from three-point range and 45.347 percent overall from the field, while New Orleans has posted 32.669 percent from beyond the arc and a superior 48.363 percent field‑goal percentage. Although the Clippers’ perimeter mark is higher, the Pelicans’ overall efficiency gives them a clear scoring edge, especially in a venue where defensive intensity has been low.
The market currently lists the spread at -1.5 with the Pelicans as the away side, yet the model projects a -7.7 line, generating an edge of 6.19 points. That sizable gap makes the away pick a clear play, and the market line is well behind the model’s assessment. Both teams enter the contest with contrasting records: the Clippers sit at 1-7 (1-3) and the Pelicans at 4-5 (3-3), further highlighting the mismatch.
Injury news further tilts the balance. The Clippers are missing three frontcourt pieces: forward Brandon Ingram, forward Isaiah Jackson, and center Yanic Konan Niederhauser, bringing the home team’s out count to 3 while the Pelicans sit at 0. Those absences erode the Clippers’ depth, rebounding and interior defense, giving New Orleans an even larger advantage on the boards.
Pick: Pelicans -1.5 (play).
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | -119 | -1.5 | O 228.5 |
| LAC LA Clippers | +100 | +1.5 | U 228.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | -169 | -7.7 | O 229.3 |
| LAC LA Clippers | +169 | +7.7 | U 229.3 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +7.7
Injury-adjusted total: 229.3
Our Picks
Play to -6.8
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+228.50): This factor contributes +228.50 to the projection, favoring Clippers.
- Combined Tempo (+115.94): This factor contributes +115.94 to the projection, favoring Clippers.
- Pace Mismatch (-14.25): A 14.25-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Pelicans's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Per Game Differential (-11.10): Pelicans's per-game scoring advantage (11.10 PPG) indicates a more productive offense.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Clippers Trends:
- LA Clippers is 12-3 ATS with 2+ days rest
- LA Clippers is 7-1 ATS vs teams above .500
- LA Clippers is 41-15 straight up after a win
- LA Clippers is 1-5 straight up underdog
- LA Clippers is 9-3 straight up at home as a favorite
Pelicans Trends:
- New Orleans Pelicans is 6-27 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- New Orleans Pelicans is 1-12 straight up on the road as an underdog
- New Orleans Pelicans is 10-52 straight up after a loss
- New Orleans Pelicans is 3-16 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- New Orleans Pelicans is 5-29 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
Head-to-Head:
- LA Clippers is 3-0 straight up at home vs New Orleans Pelicans
- LA Clippers is 1-3 straight up on the road vs New Orleans Pelicans
- LA Clippers is 1-2 ATS vs New Orleans Pelicans
Matchup Edges
Clippers
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- 5-day rest advantage over opponent's 3 days
- Market Total Signal contributes +228.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-7 (1-3) (12% win rate)
- Defense allows 115.6 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Turnover-prone at 19.4 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- On a 6-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
- Poor home record at just 40% win rate at this venue
Pelicans
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 120.2 PPG
- Pace Mismatch contributes -14.25 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +1.4 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 4-5 (3-3) record (44% win rate)
- Defense allows 118.8 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 16.3 per game, amplified in road environments
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home