Philadelphia 76ers vs Chicago Bulls
Sunday, November 8, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the market offering Chicago a +9.5 spread while the model values the contest at only +0.7, generating an eight‑point edge that makes the Bulls a clear play. The market line sits at 9.5 for the home side, the model line is 0.7, and the calculated edge is –8.84, all pointing to a substantial upside for the spread bet.
Chicago’s shooting has lagged Philadelphia’s all night. The Bulls are converting 27.193 % of their three‑point attempts and 41.209 % of overall field goals, versus the Sixers’ 33.333 % from deep and 44.369 % overall. The gap in efficiency gives the visiting team a clear offensive advantage, yet the spread still reflects a sizable cushion for the home side.
Injury news tilts the balance toward Chicago. The Bulls are missing two front‑court players—center Nic Claxton and forward Zach Collins—while Philadelphia is without one center, Adem Bona. With two Bulls out versus one Sixer, the home team’s depth is more compromised, but the spread remains generous enough to absorb the loss.
Pick: Bulls +9.5 – play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | -395 | -9.5 | O 238.5 |
| CHI Chicago Bulls | +312 | +9.5 | U 238.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | -102 | -0.7 | O 221 |
| CHI Chicago Bulls | +102 | +0.7 | U 221 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +0.7
Injury-adjusted total: 221
Our Picks
Play to -0.2
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+238.50): This factor contributes +238.50 to the projection, favoring Bulls.
- Combined Tempo (+114.31): This factor contributes +114.31 to the projection, favoring Bulls.
- Pace Mismatch (+25.25): A 25.25-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Bulls's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Allowed Differential (+23.03): The defensive scoring differential (23.03 PPG) favors Bulls, who allows fewer points per game.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Bulls Trends:
- Chicago Bulls is 5-0 ATS vs teams above .500
- Chicago Bulls is 1-6 ATS vs teams below .500
- The over is 0-5 in Chicago Bulls's games vs teams above .500
- Chicago Bulls is 5-15 straight up at home on a back-to-back
- Chicago Bulls is 4-15 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
76ers Trends:
- Philadelphia 76ers is 5-0 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 0-5 in Philadelphia 76ers's games after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 1-6 in Philadelphia 76ers's games double-digit underdog
- The over is 2-8 in Philadelphia 76ers's games after a loss
- Philadelphia 76ers is 11-21 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
Matchup Edges
Bulls
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- 4-day rest advantage over opponent's 2 days
- Market Total Signal contributes +238.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-7 (0-2) (12% win rate)
- Defense allows 129.6 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Turnover-prone at 16.1 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- On a 5-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
76ers
Advantages
- Strong 8-2 (4-1) record (80% win rate) this season
- Stout defense allowing just 106.6 PPG
- Road win rate of 75% -- proven road warriors
- SOS-Adjusted Margin contributes -21.13 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Facing a home offense (111.6 PPG) that exceeds road defense (106.6 PPG) by 5.0
- Averaging 106.6 PPG allowed on defense