San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings
Saturday, November 7, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor is the market spread of +15.5 versus the model’s projection of 3.4, creating an edge of ‑12.09 that makes the Kings a clear play. The Vegas line is far softer than the statistical expectation, positioning Sacramento as a massive value pick on the boards.
The Kings are missing three starters: center Maxime Raynaud, forward Keegan Murray and guard Ben Simmons are all out, while the Spurs list no injuries. Those three absences represent the home team’s out count of 3 against zero for the visitors, a disparity that typically drags a side’s performance.
Offensively, Sacramento averages 109.25 points while surrendering 123.25, yielding a negative margin of ‑14.0. In contrast, the Spurs post 116.875 points per game and allow only 108.625, giving them a positive margin of 8.25. The resulting gap of ‑22.25 underscores the disparity in scoring efficiency and defensive resilience.
The pick is the Kings +15.5 play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SA San Antonio Spurs | -990 | -15.5 | O 228.5 |
| SAC Sacramento Kings | +650 | +15.5 | U 228.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SA San Antonio Spurs | -114 | -3.4 | O 226.1 |
| SAC Sacramento Kings | +114 | +3.4 | U 226.1 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +3.4
Injury-adjusted total: 226.1
Our Picks
Play to +2.5
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+228.50): This factor contributes +228.50 to the projection, favoring Kings.
- Combined Tempo (+114.50): This factor contributes +114.50 to the projection, favoring Kings.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-22.40): This factor contributes -22.40 to the projection, favoring Spurs.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-22.25): Spurs's scoring margin advantage of 22.25 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Kings Trends:
- Sacramento Kings is 1-5 ATS vs teams above .500
- Sacramento Kings is 10-24 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 4-1 in Sacramento Kings's games double-digit underdog
- Sacramento Kings is 1-4 straight up double-digit underdog
- The over is 6-2 in Sacramento Kings's games at home after a loss
Spurs Trends:
- San Antonio Spurs is 14-3 straight up favorite
- San Antonio Spurs is 6-0 straight up double-digit favorite
- San Antonio Spurs is 5-1 ATS double-digit favorite
- San Antonio Spurs is 5-1 ATS with 3+ days rest
- San Antonio Spurs is 6-1 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
Head-to-Head:
- Sacramento Kings is 1-4 straight up on the road vs San Antonio Spurs
Matchup Edges
Kings
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +228.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -14.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-7 (0-3) (12% win rate)
- Defense allows 123.2 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Turnover-prone at 16.1 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Poor home record at just 25% win rate at this venue
Spurs
Advantages
- Strong 6-2 (4-2) record (75% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 116.9 PPG
- On a 5-game winning streak with rising confidence
- Road win rate of 67% -- proven road warriors
- SOS-Adjusted Margin contributes -22.40 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Averaging 108.6 PPG allowed on defense