Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies
Saturday, November 7, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the spread disconnect, with the market offering Memphis a +3.5 line while the model values the Grizzlies at –5.7, creating an edge of –9.23. That gap signals a clear advantage for the home side.
Memphis shoots efficiently from deep, converting 40.0 % of its three‑point attempts, compared with Oklahoma City’s 33.333 % from beyond the arc. The difference extends to overall field‑goal percentages, as the Grizzlies post 47.325 % versus the Thunder’s 44.033 %, underscoring a superior offensive profile that should translate into a comfortable margin.
Injury reports tilt the balance further. The Grizzlies are without center Isaiah Stewart and guard Scotty Pippen Jr., while the Thunder lose forward Jaylin Williams. Two key absences for Memphis versus one for OKC leave the home club still deeper than the visitors.
All factors point to a strong case for the Grizzlies to cover the spread. Pick: Grizzlies +3.5 – play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKC Oklahoma City Thunder | -155 | -3.5 | O 224.5 |
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | +130 | +3.5 | U 224.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKC Oklahoma City Thunder | +166 | +5.7 | O 230.5 |
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | -166 | -5.7 | U 230.5 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -5.7
Injury-adjusted total: 230.5
Our Picks
Play to -6.6
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+224.50): This factor contributes +224.50 to the projection, favoring Grizzlies.
- Combined Tempo (+112.25): This factor contributes +112.25 to the projection, favoring Grizzlies.
- Pace Mismatch (+11.50): A 11.50-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Grizzlies's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Per Game Differential (+10.50): Grizzlies's per-game scoring advantage (10.50 PPG) indicates a more productive offense.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Grizzlies Trends:
- Memphis Grizzlies is 2-11 straight up underdog
- Memphis Grizzlies is 1-7 straight up double-digit underdog
- Memphis Grizzlies is 16-31 straight up vs teams above .500
- Memphis Grizzlies is 3-7 straight up in their last 10 games
- The over is 7-3 in Memphis Grizzlies's games in their last 10 games
Thunder Trends:
- Oklahoma City Thunder is 8-0 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Oklahoma City Thunder is 15-1 straight up after a loss
- Oklahoma City Thunder is 14-1 straight up favorite
- Oklahoma City Thunder is 7-0 straight up double-digit favorite
- Oklahoma City Thunder is 63-18 straight up with 2+ days rest
Head-to-Head:
- Memphis Grizzlies is 0-13 straight up vs Oklahoma City Thunder
- Memphis Grizzlies is 0-7 straight up at home vs Oklahoma City Thunder
- Memphis Grizzlies is 0-6 straight up on the road vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Matchup Edges
Grizzlies
Advantages
- Strong 6-2 (2-2) overall record (75% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 120.5 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +224.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Allowing 109.8 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 38% model win probability
- Combined opponent scoring of 109.9 PPG creates variance risk
Thunder
Advantages
- Strong 6-2 (4-0) record (75% win rate) this season
- Home Streak contributes -2.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +1.2 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Facing a home offense (120.5 PPG) that exceeds road defense (108.8 PPG) by 11.8
- Model win probability of just 38% on the road