Washington Wizards vs Atlanta Hawks
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NBA matchup features Washington Wizards (16-41 (11-19)) traveling to take on Atlanta Hawks (29-31 (12-16)) at State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA. The Hawks hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Wizards by 9.2 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup.
Hawks averages 116.9 points per game, but they face a Wizards defense that holds opponents to 122.8 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Wizards scores 112.5 PPG but faces a Hawks defense that limits opponents to 118.0 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker.
Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.0 points in NBA, and Hawks will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Hawks to win by approximately 3.5 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Hawks winning by 19 to losing by 12.
The market has this game at -12.5, but our model sees value on Wizards with a 9.0-point edge. Our line: Hawks -3.5. Combined with the total projection of 229 versus the market line of 237.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.
Team Comparison
WSH Wizards
Stat
ATL Hawks
16-41 (11-19)
Record
29-31 (12-16)
Last 10
112.5
PPG
116.9
122.8
Opp PPG
118.0
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSH Washington Wizards | +550 | +12.5 | O 235.5 |
| ATL Atlanta Hawks | -800 | -12.5 | U 235.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 24, 5:59 AM
Opening line: -12.5 / O/U 235.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSH Washington Wizards | +148 | +3.5 | O 229.4 |
| ATL Atlanta Hawks | -148 | -3.5 | U 229.4 |
Source: Model Updated: Feb 25, 4:54 AM
Injury-adjusted spread: -3.5
Injury-adjusted total: 229.4
Our Picks
Spread
Wizards (opened at -12.5)
58% Confidence
Play to -4.4
Total
Under (opened at 235.5)
66% Confidence
Play to 230.3
Injury Calculator
Updated Feb 25, 4:54 AM
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Spread
Base model-3.5
Injury adj.0
Adjusted-3.5
Play to-4.4
Total
Base model229.4
Injury adj.0
Adjusted229.4
Recent Trends
Hawks has struggled this season at 29-31 (12-16). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset.
It's been a difficult season for Wizards at 16-41 (11-19). Traveling to face Hawks presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future.
When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.
Matchup Edges
Hawks
Advantages
- Home court advantage and crowd support
- Strong offense averaging 116.9 PPG
- Familiarity with home venue and routines
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 29-31 (12-16) raises concerns
- Defense allows 118.0 PPG — a vulnerability
Wizards
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 112.5 PPG
- Nothing to lose as the visiting team
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Struggling with a 16-41 (11-19) record this season