SharpBetz
NBA

Charlotte Hornets vs Chicago Bulls

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Matchup Analysis

This NBA matchup features Charlotte Hornets (28-31 (12-16)) traveling to take on Chicago Bulls (24-35 (15-16)) at United Center, Chicago, IL. The Hornets hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Bulls by 6.5 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Bulls averages 116.1 points per game, which exceeds what the Hornets defense typically allows (113.4 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. Meanwhile, Hornets scores 115.6 PPG but faces a Bulls defense that limits opponents to 120.4 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.0 points in NBA, and Bulls will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 2.5-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Bulls winning by 13 to losing by 18. The market has this game at +7.5, but our model sees value on Bulls with a 5.0-point edge. Our line: Bulls +2.5. Combined with the total projection of 232 versus the market line of 231.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Team Comparison

CHA Hornets
Stat
CHI Bulls
28-31 (12-16)
Record
24-35 (15-16)
Last 10
115.6
PPG
116.1
113.4
Opp PPG
120.4

Current Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
CHA Charlotte Hornets
-340 -8.5 O 229.5
CHI Chicago Bulls
+270 +8.5 U 229.5
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 24, 5:59 AM
Opening line: +8.5 / O/U 229.5

Model Projection

Team Moneyline Spread Total
CHA Charlotte Hornets
-201 -2.5 O 231.7
CHI Chicago Bulls
+201 +2.5 U 231.7
Source: Model Updated: Feb 25, 4:54 AM

Injury-adjusted spread: +2.5

Injury-adjusted total: 231.7

Our Picks

Spread
Bulls (opened at +8.5)
54% Confidence

Play to +1.6

Total
Pass
Model: 231.7 | Edge below threshold

Injury Calculator

Updated Feb 25, 4:54 AM

Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.

BullsHome - 5 players
Jalen SmithFRight Calf StrainNo impact data
Anfernee SimonsGLeft Wrist FractureNo impact data
Zach CollinsFRight Toe SurgeryNo impact data
Jaden IveyGLeft Knee SorenessNo impact data
Noa EssengueFLeft Shoulder SurgeryNo impact data
HornetsAway - 1 player
Liam McNeeleyGLeft Ankle SprainNo impact data

Adjusted Projection

Spread
Base model+2.5
Injury adj.0
Adjusted+2.5
Play to+1.6
Total
Base model231.7
Injury adj.0
Adjusted231.7

Recent Trends

Bulls has struggled this season at 24-35 (15-16). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Hornets at 28-31 (12-16). Traveling to face Bulls presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.

Matchup Edges

Bulls

Advantages

  • Home court advantage and crowd support
  • Strong offense averaging 116.1 PPG
  • Familiarity with home venue and routines

Disadvantages

  • Sub-.500 record at 24-35 (15-16) raises concerns
  • Defense allows 120.4 PPG — a vulnerability

Hornets

Advantages

  • Potent offense averaging 115.6 PPG
  • Nothing to lose as the visiting team
  • Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure

Disadvantages

  • Playing on the road without home crowd support
  • Struggling with a 28-31 (12-16) record this season

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