Milwaukee Bucks vs New Orleans Pelicans

This NBA matchup features Milwaukee Bucks (23-30 (12-12)) traveling to take on New Orleans Pelicans (15-41 (9-20)) at Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. Pelicans averages 114.6 points per game, but they face a Bucks defense that holds opponents to 115.2 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Bucks scores 111.8 PPG but faces a Pelicans defense that limits opponents to 120.4 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.0 points in NBA, and Pelicans will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 0.6-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The market has this game at -4.5, but our model sees value on Bucks with a 3.9-point edge. Combined with the total projection of 231 versus the market line of 223.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Pelicans has struggled this season at 15-41 (9-20). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Bucks at 23-30 (12-12). Traveling to face Pelicans presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.