Philadelphia Flyers vs Calgary Flames
Monday, November 9, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NHL matchup features Philadelphia Flyers (4-10-4 (3-4-3)) traveling to take on Calgary Flames (7-9-1 (5-4-0)) at Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB. There's minimal separation between these teams in scoring margin. Matchups like this tend to produce tight, competitive games where every possession matters down the stretch.
Flames's 2.5 GPG offense runs into Flyers goaltending that surrenders only 3.3 GA/G. Expect the home team to face tougher sledding than usual in front of the net. Flyers's 2.2 GPG offense will be tested by Flames goaltending surrendering just 3.5 GA/G. The road team may need to capitalize on power plays to keep pace.
Playing at home is worth roughly 0.28 goals in NHL, giving Flames a built-in edge before puck drop. The projected margin of 1.0 goals in favor of Flyers reflects a meaningful but not overwhelming advantage. Within one standard deviation, outcomes range from Flames winning by 1 to losing by 3, illustrating the range of likely outcomes.
Our model's top contributing factors in this matchup are: Market Total Signal (+5.50, favoring Flames); Shots Per Game Diff (+4.03, favoring Flames); Faceoff Pct Diff (-3.26, favoring Flyers). These features drive the core of our projection.
This is one of those games where the oddsmakers have it dialed in. Our model sees no significant spread edge, but secondary markets like the total could still offer a narrow window of value.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Dustin Wolf (Flames) and Dan Vladar (Flyers) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia Flyers | -118 ↓ | -1.5 | O 5.5 |
| CGY Calgary Flames | -102 ↑ | +1.5 | U 5.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia Flyers | -106 | -1 | O 4.6 |
| CGY Calgary Flames | +106 | +1 | U 4.6 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+5.50): This factor contributes +5.50 to the projection, favoring Flames.
- Shots Per Game Diff (+4.03): This factor contributes +4.03 to the projection, favoring Flames.
- Faceoff Pct Diff (-3.26): This factor contributes -3.26 to the projection, favoring Flyers.
- Home Streak (-2.00): This factor contributes -2.00 to the projection, favoring Flyers.
Recent Trends
Flames Trends:
- Calgary Flames is 5-1 ATS on a 3+ game win streak
- Calgary Flames is 15-5 ATS after a win
- Calgary Flames is 18-8 ATS underdog
- The over is 10-4 in Calgary Flames's games at home as a favorite
- Calgary Flames is 15-7 ATS vs teams below .500
Flyers Trends:
- The over is 1-9 in Philadelphia Flyers's games in their last 10 games
- Philadelphia Flyers is 1-9 straight up in their last 10 games
- Philadelphia Flyers is 28-12 ATS on the road as an underdog
- The over is 1-6 in Philadelphia Flyers's games with 3+ days rest
- Philadelphia Flyers is 11-4 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
Matchup Edges
Flames
Advantages
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Home record of 83% win rate at this venue
- Market Total Signal contributes +5.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 7-9-1 (5-4-0) (44% win rate)
- Goaltending allows 3.5 GPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.885 save percentage
- Limited offense averaging just 2.5 GPG
Flyers
Advantages
- Faceoff Pct Diff contributes -3.26 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -1.2 GPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 52%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Struggling with a 4-10-4 (3-4-3) record (29% win rate)
- Goaltending allows 3.3 GPG -- exploitable on the road
- Anemic offense at just 2.2 GPG limits scoring ceiling
- Road win rate of only 33% away from home