Nashville Predators vs Colorado Avalanche

This NHL matchup features Nashville Predators (6-4-5 (5-3-2)) traveling to take on Colorado Avalanche (9-6-1 (6-1-1)) at Ball Arena, Denver, CO. This is a true toss-up by the numbers. Both squads have posted nearly identical scoring differentials, and the outcome will likely hinge on which team executes better in crunch time.

The offensive edge belongs to Avalanche at 4.1 GPG, a number that sits well above the 3.0 GA/G Predators's goaltending allows. Look for the home team to generate quality chances early. Predators's 3.0 GPG offense will be tested by Avalanche goaltending surrendering just 3.2 GA/G. The road team may need to capitalize on power plays to keep pace.

The 0.28-goal Home ice advantage in NHL is baked into our model, and Avalanche will aim to make that factor count with crowd energy. Our model projects Avalanche to win by approximately 2.2 goals. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Avalanche winning by 5 to losing by 0.

Our model's top contributing factors in this matchup are: Market Total Signal (+6.50, favoring Avalanche); Shots Per Game Diff (+4.63, favoring Avalanche); Faceoff Pct Diff (-2.27, favoring Predators). These features drive the core of our projection.

The market and our model are in agreement on this matchup, which means the sharpest value won't come from the spread. Instead, examine the total and moneyline for any slight mispricing worth targeting.

Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Mackenzie Blackwood (Avalanche) and Juuse Saros (Predators) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.

Key Matchup Factors:

• Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Avalanche.
• Shots Per Game Diff (+4.63): This factor contributes +4.63 to the projection, favoring Avalanche.
• Faceoff Pct Diff (-2.27): This factor contributes -2.27 to the projection, favoring Predators.
• Away Streak (+2.00): This factor contributes +2.00 to the projection, favoring Avalanche.

Avalanche Trends:

• Colorado Avalanche is 14-2 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
• Colorado Avalanche is 13-2 straight up with 3+ days rest
• The over is 11-4 in Colorado Avalanche's games at home after a loss
• Colorado Avalanche is 35-16 straight up with 2+ days rest
• Colorado Avalanche is 13-6 straight up at home after a loss

Predators Trends:

• Nashville Predators is 8-0 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
• Nashville Predators is 15-2 ATS after a loss
• Nashville Predators is 26-8 ATS on the road as an underdog
• The over is 1-6 in Nashville Predators's games on the road on a back-to-back
• Nashville Predators is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games

Head-to-Head:

• Colorado Avalanche is 1-3 ATS vs Nashville Predators
• The over is 3-1 in Colorado Avalanche's games vs Nashville Predators
• Colorado Avalanche is 1-2 straight up on the road vs Nashville Predators