St. Louis Blues vs New York Rangers
Wednesday, November 4, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the St. Louis Blues’ 15-4 ATS record against teams above .500, a 0.789 win percentage in a 19‑game sample. That trend shows the club consistently outperforms the spread when facing quality opponents, suggesting a disciplined approach that translates well to a straight moneyline bet.
The market versus the model backs the Blues as well. The Rangers sit at home in Madison Square Garden while the Blues visit, and the moneyline line sits at 105 for the away side. The model assigns a 0.534 win probability to the Blues, generating a 0.046 edge that the model flags as a “play.” The market’s 105 odds line up with the model’s assessment, reinforcing confidence in the upside.
Total considerations also tilt toward the Blues. The combined projection sits at 6.1 goals, while the sportsbook total is set at 5.5, a 0.6‑goal differential. Both the market total and the model total match at 6.1, indicating that the projected scoring environment exceeds the bookmaker’s expectations and hints at a game with enough offense to support a higher total.
The pick is the St. Louis Blues on the moneyline at 105, play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Igor Shesterkin (Rangers) and Joel Hofer (Blues) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STL St. Louis Blues | +105 | +1.5 | O 5.5 |
| NYR New York Rangers | -125 | -1.5 | U 5.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STL St. Louis Blues | -114 | +0.4 | O 6.1 |
| NYR New York Rangers | +114 | -0.4 | U 6.1 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+5.50): This factor contributes +5.50 to the projection, favoring Rangers.
- Faceoff Pct Diff (+4.49): This factor contributes +4.49 to the projection, favoring Rangers.
- Home Streak (-4.00): This factor contributes -4.00 to the projection, favoring Blues.
- Away Streak (+2.00): This factor contributes +2.00 to the projection, favoring Rangers.
Recent Trends
Rangers Trends:
- New York Rangers is 5-1 ATS at home on a back-to-back
- New York Rangers is 2-8 straight up at home on a back-to-back
- The over is 1-5 in New York Rangers's games at home on a back-to-back
- New York Rangers is 5-1 ATS on a back-to-back
- New York Rangers is 2-8 straight up on a back-to-back
Blues Trends:
- St. Louis Blues is 20-8 ATS on the road as an underdog
- The over is 8-2 in St. Louis Blues's games in their last 10 games
- St. Louis Blues is 15-4 ATS vs teams above .500
- St. Louis Blues is 7-2 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- St. Louis Blues is 20-8 ATS underdog
Matchup Edges
Rangers
Advantages
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +5.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -0.1 GPG per game
Disadvantages
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.896 save percentage
- On a 4-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
- Model win probability of only 47% despite home advantage
Blues
Advantages
- Home Streak contributes -4.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +0.1 GPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 53%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Averaging 3.0 GPG allowed on defense