Edmonton Oilers vs New York Islanders
Saturday, October 31, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The market‑vs‑model edge on the moneyline gives the Islanders a clear advantage, with the sportsbook offering +114 while the model projects a 0.589 win probability, generating a 0.122 edge for the home side. The model also assigns a –0.7 spread to New York, yet the posted market spread sits at 1.5, a mismatch that further validates the moneyline value. Moreover, the model forecasts a total of 7.2 goals versus the market’s 6.5, another area where the projection exceeds the bookmaker’s line.
In goalies, Ilya Sorokin posts a 0.911 save percentage and a 2.48 GAA compared with Connor Ingram’s 0.895 save percentage and 2.59 GAA, though both starts remain unconfirmed. Sorokin’s 0.911 save rate tops Ingram’s 0.895, and both netters have GAAs under 3.00, suggesting solid netminding for the contest.
The Islanders have covered as underdogs 14‑3 ATS, a .824 win percentage over a 17‑game sample, underscoring a strong trend when they enter as the lower‑priced side. That 14‑3 record translates to a .824 win pct and comes from 17 outings, making it the most substantial sample among the signals.
The pick is Islanders +114 (play).
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Ilya Sorokin (Islanders) and Connor Ingram (Oilers) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| EDM Edmonton Oilers | -135 | -1.5 | O 6.5 |
| NYI New York Islanders | +114 | +1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| EDM Edmonton Oilers | +144 | +0.7 | O 7.2 |
| NYI New York Islanders | -144 | -0.7 | U 7.2 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Islanders.
- Faceoff Pct Diff (+5.96): This factor contributes +5.96 to the projection, favoring Islanders.
- Rest Advantage (-3.00): The rest differential (3.00) gives Oilers fresher legs, which typically matters most in second-half execution.
- Home Streak (+2.00): This factor contributes +2.00 to the projection, favoring Islanders.
Recent Trends
Islanders Trends:
- New York Islanders is 14-3 ATS underdog
- New York Islanders is 5-0 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- New York Islanders is 5-1 straight up at home on a back-to-back
- New York Islanders is 5-12 ATS at home as a favorite
- New York Islanders is 5-1 straight up on a back-to-back
Oilers Trends:
- Edmonton Oilers is 2-9 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- The over is 5-1 in Edmonton Oilers's games after a loss vs a winning team
- Edmonton Oilers is 2-9 straight up on a back-to-back
- Edmonton Oilers is 7-2 ATS on the road as an underdog
- The over is 7-2 in Edmonton Oilers's games on the road as an underdog
Matchup Edges
Islanders
Advantages
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Elite goaltending allowing just 2.6 GPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +6.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Allowing 2.6 GPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 41% model win probability
- Combined opponent scoring of 3.4 GPG creates variance risk
Oilers
Advantages
- Strong 10-2-2 (4-2-2) record (83% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 4.2 GPG
- 5-day rest advantage over opponent's 2 days
- Road win rate of 100% -- proven road warriors
- Rest Advantage contributes -3.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Model win probability of just 41% on the road
- Averaging 3.2 GPG allowed on defense