Winnipeg Jets vs St. Louis Blues
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor is the moneyline edge favoring the Jets, with an 0.082 advantage over the model’s 0.528 win probability. The market has priced the Jets at 124 on the moneyline, while the model projects a 52.8% chance of victory, delivering a clear “play” signal for the away side.
In the net, Joel Hofer sits for St. Louis with a .909 save percentage and a 2.47 goals‑against average, versus Connor Hellebuyck’s .897 save percentage and 2.8 GAA for Winnipeg. Both starts remain unconfirmed, but the home netminder’s higher save rate and lower GAA suggest a marginal advantage for the Blues in the goalie duel.
St. Louis has been remarkably reliable as an underdog against the spread, posting a 12‑3 ATS record in its last 15 outings – an 80% success rate. That trend underscores the Blues’ ability to keep games close even when outmatched, a factor that often squeezes value from the opponent’s moneyline.
The pick is Jets at 124 – play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Joel Hofer (Blues) and Connor Hellebuyck (Jets) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WPG Winnipeg Jets | +124 | +1.5 | O 5.5 |
| STL St. Louis Blues | -148 | -1.5 | U 5.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WPG Winnipeg Jets | -112 | +1.7 | O 6.2 |
| STL St. Louis Blues | +112 | -1.7 | U 6.2 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+5.50): This factor contributes +5.50 to the projection, favoring Blues.
- Faceoff Pct Diff (+2.19): This factor contributes +2.19 to the projection, favoring Blues.
- Home Streak (-2.00): This factor contributes -2.00 to the projection, favoring Jets.
- Away Streak (-2.00): This factor contributes -2.00 to the projection, favoring Jets.
Recent Trends
Blues Trends:
- St. Louis Blues is 6-0 ATS at home on a back-to-back
- St. Louis Blues is 6-0 ATS on a 3+ game losing streak
- St. Louis Blues is 6-0 ATS on a back-to-back
- St. Louis Blues is 12-3 ATS underdog
- St. Louis Blues is 9-3 ATS at home after a loss
Jets Trends:
- Winnipeg Jets is 1-9 ATS favorite
- Winnipeg Jets is 3-8 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Winnipeg Jets is 4-12 straight up vs teams above .500
- Winnipeg Jets is 8-16 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Winnipeg Jets is 8-16 straight up underdog
Head-to-Head:
- The over is 0-4 in St. Louis Blues's games vs Winnipeg Jets
- St. Louis Blues is 1-3 straight up vs Winnipeg Jets
Matchup Edges
Blues
Advantages
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Strong offense averaging 3.4 GPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +5.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 3-4-1 (1-0-1) (43% win rate)
- Goaltending allows 3.5 GPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.877 save percentage
Jets
Advantages
- Strong 4-2-2 (2-2-1) record (67% win rate) this season
- Home Streak contributes -2.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -0.1 GPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Averaging 3.0 GPG allowed on defense