Anaheim Ducks vs New York Rangers
Monday, October 19, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the market‑vs‑model moneyline edge that heavily favors the Ducks. The market has the Ducks at 120 on the moneyline while the model assigns a 0.76 win probability to the away team, producing an edge of 0.306 versus the Rangers’ 0.24 probability. The model projects a 1.6‑goal advantage for the Rangers and a total of 5.9 goals, while the sportsbook lists a -1.5 spread and a 6.5 total, underscoring the divergence that fuels the moneyline edge. The contest pits the New York Rangers (6‑3‑1, 5‑0‑0 at home) against the Anaheim Ducks (4‑3‑0, 1‑3‑0 on the road) at Madison Square Garden. In net, Igor Shesterkin posts a 0.913 save percentage and a 2.42 GAA, compared with Lukas Dostal’s 0.885 save percentage and 3.03 GAA; both starts remain unconfirmed. Neither netminder has been confirmed for the matchup, leaving the statistical advantage as the best indicator. New York Rangers have gone 9‑1 ATS in their last 10 games, a 0.9 win percentage over a sample size of 10. That ATS reliability contrasts sharply with the model’s 0.24 home win probability, highlighting the Rangers’ tendency to cover despite being underdogs on paper. The pick is the Ducks at 120, a play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Igor Shesterkin (Rangers) and Lukas Dostal (Ducks) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANA Anaheim Ducks | +120 | +1.5 | O 6.5 |
| NYR New York Rangers | -142 | -1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANA Anaheim Ducks | -317 | -1.6 | O 5.9 |
| NYR New York Rangers | +317 | +1.6 | U 5.9 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Faceoff Pct Diff (+10.15): This factor contributes +10.15 to the projection, favoring Rangers.
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Rangers.
- Home Streak (-2.00): This factor contributes -2.00 to the projection, favoring Ducks.
- Away Streak (-2.00): This factor contributes -2.00 to the projection, favoring Ducks.
Recent Trends
Rangers Trends:
- New York Rangers is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games
- New York Rangers is 5-1 ATS at home on a back-to-back
- New York Rangers is 2-8 straight up at home on a back-to-back
- The over is 1-5 in New York Rangers's games at home on a back-to-back
- New York Rangers is 5-1 ATS on a back-to-back
Ducks Trends:
- Anaheim Ducks is 2-6 ATS favorite
- Anaheim Ducks is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games
- The over is 6-3 in Anaheim Ducks's games after a loss vs a winning team
- Anaheim Ducks is 4-2 ATS on the road on a back-to-back
- The over is 8-4 in Anaheim Ducks's games vs teams above .500
Matchup Edges
Rangers
Advantages
- Strong 6-3-1 (5-0-0) overall record (67% win rate)
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Home record of 100% win rate at this venue
- Elite goaltending allowing just 2.2 GPG
- Superior goaltending with a 0.920 save percentage
Disadvantages
- Model win probability of only 24% despite home advantage
- Model sees 3.1-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 2.2 GPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Ducks
Advantages
- Road win rate of 75% -- proven road warriors
- Home Streak contributes -2.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +0.1 GPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Averaging 3.0 GPG allowed on defense