St. Louis Blues vs Nashville Predators
Sunday, October 18, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor is the moneyline edge that gives Nashville a 0.17 advantage over the market's -105 line, with the model assigning a 0.682 win probability to the Predators. The model’s home win probability of 0.682 further supports the straight‑up selection.
St. Louis Blues is 15-4 ATS versus teams above .500, a 0.789 win percentage in a sample of 19 games. Such a record underscores the Blues’ ability to cover when facing stronger opponents. The trend suggests the visiting squad can stay competitive against a mid‑tier opponent despite Nashville’s home advantage. Even with the Blues’ strong ATS performance, the overall sample size remains modest, and the Predators’ recent form at home balances the equation.
Juuse Saros posts a 0.902 save percentage with a 2.9 goals‑against average, while Joel Hofer records a 0.909 save percentage and a 2.47 goals‑against average; both starts are unconfirmed. The marginally better save rate for Hofer is offset by his lower GAA, leaving the net‑minder battle finely balanced. While the higher save percentage favors Hofer, Saros’ experience in Nashville’s arena could prove decisive.
The pick is Predators -105, play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Juuse Saros (Predators) and Joel Hofer (Blues) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STL St. Louis Blues | -115 | -1.5 | O 5.5 |
| NSH Nashville Predators | -105 | +1.5 | U 5.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STL St. Louis Blues | +214 | +0.2 | O 6.1 |
| NSH Nashville Predators | -214 | -0.2 | U 6.1 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+5.50): This factor contributes +5.50 to the projection, favoring Predators.
- Home Streak (-3.00): This factor contributes -3.00 to the projection, favoring Blues.
- Shots Per Game Diff (-1.43): This factor contributes -1.43 to the projection, favoring Blues.
- Goals Per Game Diff (-1.00): This factor contributes -1.00 to the projection, favoring Blues.
Recent Trends
Predators Trends:
- The over is 6-2 in Nashville Predators's games with 3+ days rest
- The over is 3-7 in Nashville Predators's games in their last 10 games
- Nashville Predators is 3-7 straight up in their last 10 games
- Nashville Predators is 5-2 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
Blues Trends:
- St. Louis Blues is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games
- St. Louis Blues is 19-8 ATS on the road as an underdog
- St. Louis Blues is 15-4 ATS vs teams above .500
- St. Louis Blues is 7-2 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- St. Louis Blues is 19-8 ATS underdog
Head-to-Head:
- Nashville Predators is 3-1 ATS vs St. Louis Blues
- The over is 3-1 in Nashville Predators's games vs St. Louis Blues
- Nashville Predators is 3-1 straight up vs St. Louis Blues
Matchup Edges
Predators
Advantages
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +5.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -0.3 GPG per game
Disadvantages
- On a 3-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
- Poor home record at just 29% win rate at this venue
- Negative scoring margin of -0.3 GPG per game
Blues
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 3.6 GPG
- Home Streak contributes -3.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +0.3 GPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Model win probability of just 32% on the road
- Averaging 3.3 GPG allowed on defense