Utah Mammoth vs Edmonton Oilers
Friday, October 16, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the moneyline clash where the market undervalues the Mammoth, offering a 0.088 edge over the model’s 0.576 win probability. The Oilers enter the contest at home in Edmonton with a 5-0-1 record, while the Mammoth sit at 5-2-0 on the road. The market line sits at 105 for the away side, and the model projects the visitor to win just over half the time, giving the pick a clear “play” designation.
In Edmonton, the over has been a relentless force when the Oilers enjoy three or more days of rest, posting an 11-2 record that translates to an 84.6 % win percentage across 13 games. That trend underscores a high‑scoring environment that could spill over to both teams, but the moneyline focus remains on the visitor’s upside.
The total line also drifts upward: the combined scoring expectation of 7.2 runs sits a full 0.7 above the market total of 6.5, while the model pushes the total even higher to 8.7. The gap suggests the market is holding the total too low, reinforcing the notion that the Mammoth’s offensive upside is being overlooked.
The recommendation is the Mammoth on the moneyline at 105, a straight “play.”
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Connor Ingram (Oilers) and Karel Vejmelka (Mammoth) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Utah Mammoth | +105 | +1.5 | O 6.5 |
| EDM Edmonton Oilers | -125 | -1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Utah Mammoth | -136 | -2.6 | O 8.7 |
| EDM Edmonton Oilers | +136 | +2.6 | U 8.7 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Oilers.
- Shots Per Game Diff (-6.29): This factor contributes -6.29 to the projection, favoring Mammoth.
- Home Streak (+5.00): This factor contributes +5.00 to the projection, favoring Oilers.
- Away Streak (+2.00): This factor contributes +2.00 to the projection, favoring Oilers.
Recent Trends
Oilers Trends:
- The over is 11-2 in Edmonton Oilers's games with 3+ days rest
- Edmonton Oilers is 3-10 ATS with 3+ days rest
- The over is 11-5 in Edmonton Oilers's games at home after a loss
- The over is 11-5 in Edmonton Oilers's games after a loss
- The over is 2-4 in Edmonton Oilers's games after a loss vs a winning team
Mammoth Trends:
- Utah Mammoth is 8-1 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Utah Mammoth is 4-1 ATS with 3+ days rest
- The over is 4-1 in Utah Mammoth's games with 3+ days rest
- Utah Mammoth is 3-8 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- Utah Mammoth is 12-5 ATS after a loss
Head-to-Head:
- Edmonton Oilers is 2-1 straight up vs Utah Mammoth
Matchup Edges
Oilers
Advantages
- Strong 5-0-1 (1-0-1) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Strong offense averaging 4.8 GPG
- Riding a 5-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Market Total Signal contributes +6.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.885 save percentage
- Model win probability of only 42% despite home advantage
- Model sees 4.1-point edge favoring the away side
Mammoth
Advantages
- Strong 5-2-0 (2-0-0) record (71% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 3.9 GPG
- Shots Per Game Diff contributes -6.29 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Averaging 2.7 GPG allowed on defense