St. Louis Blues vs Minnesota Wild
Friday, October 16, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest edge lies in the market versus the model on the moneyline, where the odds favor the away side despite a model win probability of 0.555.
The market line sits at 124 for the St. Louis Blues, while the model projects a win probability of 0.555 for the away team, generating an edge of 0.108. The pick is the Blues on the moneyline, and the model’s home win probability of 0.445 underscores the upside of backing St. Louis at those odds.
Against teams above .500, the Blues have excelled ATS, posting a 14‑4 record that translates to a win‑percentage of 0.778 over an 18‑game sample. That trend signals strong performance when covering spreads against quality opponents.
In goal, Jesper Wallstedt (0.916 save percentage, 2.51 GAA) will guard the net for the Wild, while Joel Hofer (0.910 save percentage, 2.42 GAA) starts for the Blues. Both starters are listed as unconfirmed, but their season numbers suggest a marginal advantage for St. Louis in the net battle.
The pick is the St. Louis Blues at +124, a play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Jesper Wallstedt (Wild) and Joel Hofer (Blues) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STL St. Louis Blues | +124 | +1.5 | O 5.5 |
| MIN Minnesota Wild | -148 | -1.5 | U 5.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STL St. Louis Blues | -125 | -1.3 | O 6.5 |
| MIN Minnesota Wild | +125 | +1.3 | U 6.5 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Faceoff Pct Diff (+5.88): This factor contributes +5.88 to the projection, favoring Wild.
- Market Total Signal (+5.50): This factor contributes +5.50 to the projection, favoring Wild.
- Away Streak (+2.00): This factor contributes +2.00 to the projection, favoring Wild.
- Shots Per Game Diff (+1.71): This factor contributes +1.71 to the projection, favoring Wild.
Recent Trends
Wild Trends:
- Minnesota Wild is 8-2 straight up with 3+ days rest
- Minnesota Wild is 8-2 straight up in their last 10 games
- Minnesota Wild is 4-10 ATS vs teams below .500
- The over is 2-6 in Minnesota Wild's games after a loss vs a winning team
- Minnesota Wild is 17-8 straight up vs teams above .500
Blues Trends:
- St. Louis Blues is 18-8 ATS on the road as an underdog
- St. Louis Blues is 14-4 ATS vs teams above .500
- St. Louis Blues is 7-2 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- St. Louis Blues is 18-8 ATS underdog
- St. Louis Blues is 7-16 straight up vs teams below .500
Head-to-Head:
- Minnesota Wild is 1-2 straight up vs St. Louis Blues
Matchup Edges
Wild
Advantages
- Strong 4-2-1 (2-0-0) overall record (67% win rate)
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Home record of 75% win rate at this venue
- Elite goaltending allowing just 2.3 GPG
- Faceoff Pct Diff contributes +5.88 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Model win probability of only 45% despite home advantage
- Model sees 2.8-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 2.3 GPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Blues
Advantages
- Strong 3-2-1 (1-0-1) record (60% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 3.5 GPG
- Road win rate of 67% -- proven road warriors
- Home Streak contributes -1.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Averaging 3.0 GPG allowed on defense