St. Louis Blues vs Ottawa Senators
Tuesday, October 13, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest storyline is the rest edge, with Ottawa rolling out after just one day while St. Louis enjoys three days off, and the Senators are on a back‑to‑back stretch while the Blues are not. Ottawa heads into the Canadian Tire Centre with a 5‑1‑0 overall record (2‑0‑0 at home) against St. Louis’ 2‑2‑1 (1‑0‑1 on the road). The market lists the Senators as –1.5 favorites, yet the model projects a two‑goal spread.
The net‑minders are Linus Ullmark for Ottawa and Joel Hofer for St. Louis, both listed as unconfirmed. Ullmark posts a .900 save percentage and a 2.54 goals‑against average, while Hofer is at .911 and 2.43 GAA. Both net minders have comparable metrics, keeping the battle tight.
Offensively Ottawa averages three goals per game while allowing two, yielding a +1.0 margin; St. Louis scores 2.8 but concedes 3.2, a –0.4 margin. The resulting gap of 1.4 points underscores Ottawa’s edge in scoring efficiency. The market total sits at 5.5, whereas the model predicts a 5.8 goal total, hinting at a slightly higher-scoring affair.
No line or side is offered; the recommendation is a pass.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Linus Ullmark (Senators) and Joel Hofer (Blues) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STL St. Louis Blues | -105 | +1.5 | O 5.5 |
| OTT Ottawa Senators | -115 | -1.5 | U 5.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STL St. Louis Blues | +114 | -2 | O 5.8 |
| OTT Ottawa Senators | -114 | +2 | U 5.8 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Faceoff Pct Diff (+7.78): This factor contributes +7.78 to the projection, favoring Senators.
- Market Total Signal (+5.50): This factor contributes +5.50 to the projection, favoring Senators.
- Home Streak (+3.00): This factor contributes +3.00 to the projection, favoring Senators.
- Shots Per Game Diff (-2.00): This factor contributes -2.00 to the projection, favoring Blues.
Recent Trends
At 5-1-0 (2-0-0), Senators has been among the best teams in their conference this season. The 5-win total didn't happen by accident -- this is a well-coached squad that executes on both ends. They enter on a 3-game winning streak, bringing strong momentum into this matchup.
At 2-2-1 (1-0-1), Blues has been a middle-of-the-pack team with both impressive wins and puzzling losses.
Venue splits matter: Senators wins 50% at home while Blues wins 60% on the road. The gap between home and away performance can be a decisive factor.
Matchup Edges
Senators
Advantages
- Strong 5-1-0 (2-0-0) overall record (83% win rate)
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Riding a 3-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Elite goaltending allowing just 2.0 GPG
- Superior goaltending with a 0.931 save percentage
Disadvantages
- Playing on a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest
- Model sees 3.5-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 2.0 GPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Blues
Advantages
- 3-day rest advantage over opponent's 1 days
- Road win rate of 60% -- proven road warriors
- Shots Per Game Diff contributes -2.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Model win probability of just 47% on the road
- Averaging 3.2 GPG allowed on defense