Anaheim Ducks vs Calgary Flames
Sunday, October 11, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor is the scoring‑margin gap, which heavily favors the Ducks as the Flames post a –4.25 margin while the Ducks sit at +0.75, a differential of –5.0. Calgary’s offense averages only 1.5 goals per game and concedes 5.75, whereas Anaheim scores 3.5 and allows just 2.75, underscoring the Ducks’ clear advantage on both ends.
Special‑teams numbers reinforce that disparity. The Flames’ power‑play conversion sits at 28.571 % and their penalty kill at 92.308 %, respectable but eclipsed by the Ducks’ 35.714 % power‑play rate and a solid 86.667 % penalty‑kill efficiency, giving Anaheim the edge in critical situations.
Goaltending appears evenly matched, though the Flames’ Dustin Wolf posts a .895 save percentage compared with the Ducks’ Lukas Dostal at .885. Wolf’s goals‑against average of 2.88 edges Dostal’s 3.01, yet both starters remain unconfirmed, offering no decisive advantage to either side.
With a pass strength, there is no moneyline line that offers a clear edge, so no pick is presented.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Dustin Wolf (Flames) and Lukas Dostal (Ducks) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANA Anaheim Ducks | -125 | -1.5 | O 6.5 |
| CGY Calgary Flames | +105 | +1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANA Anaheim Ducks | -131 | -0.8 | O 5 |
| CGY Calgary Flames | +131 | +0.8 | U 5 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Power Play Diff (-7.14): This factor contributes -7.14 to the projection, favoring Ducks.
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Flames.
- Shots Per Game Diff (+5.75): This factor contributes +5.75 to the projection, favoring Flames.
- Penalty Kill Diff (+5.64): This factor contributes +5.64 to the projection, favoring Flames.
Recent Trends
Flames Trends:
- The over is 9-4 in Calgary Flames's games at home as a favorite
- Calgary Flames is 9-4 straight up at home as a favorite
- Calgary Flames is 11-5 ATS after a win
- Calgary Flames is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games
- Calgary Flames is 13-7 ATS underdog
Ducks Trends:
- Anaheim Ducks is 1-6 ATS favorite
- The over is 4-1 in Anaheim Ducks's games on the road on a back-to-back
- The over is 4-1 in Anaheim Ducks's games on a back-to-back
- The over is 6-3 in Anaheim Ducks's games after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 8-4 in Anaheim Ducks's games vs teams above .500
Head-to-Head:
- Calgary Flames is 3-1 ATS vs Anaheim Ducks
- Calgary Flames is 1-3 straight up vs Anaheim Ducks
Matchup Edges
Flames
Advantages
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Dominant power play converting at 2857.1%
- Strong penalty kill at 9230.8%
- Market Total Signal contributes +6.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 0-4-0 (0-2-0) (0% win rate)
- Goaltending allows 5.8 GPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.807 save percentage
- Limited offense averaging just 1.5 GPG
- On a 4-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
Ducks
Advantages
- Strong 3-1-0 (1-1-0) record (75% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 3.5 GPG
- Road win rate of 60% -- proven road warriors
- Dangerous power play at 3571.4%
- Reliable penalty kill at 8666.7%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Averaging 2.8 GPG allowed on defense