Anaheim Ducks vs Winnipeg Jets
Saturday, October 10, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The market moneyline undervalues the Ducks, with a line of 105 while the model assigns a win probability of 0.762 and an edge of 0.274 for the away side. That disparity makes the Ducks’ moneyline the single most compelling angle in this contest.
Winnipeg Jets have been woeful against the spread at home when positioned as a favorite, posting a 3-17 ATS record. The description “Winnipeg Jets is 3-17 ATS at home as a favorite” underscores a win‑pct of 0.15 over a sample size of 20, suggesting the Jets struggle to cover even with home‑ice advantage.
In net‑minder terms, Connor Hellebuyck stands at a save percentage of 0.897 and a goals‑against average of 2.8, while Lukas Dostal posts a save percentage of 0.885 and a goals‑against average of 3.04. Both goaltending confirmations remain unconfirmed, but the numbers hint at a slight edge for the home net‑minder.
The pick is Ducks +105, play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Connor Hellebuyck (Jets) and Lukas Dostal (Ducks) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANA Anaheim Ducks | +105 | +1.5 | O 6.5 |
| WPG Winnipeg Jets | -125 | -1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANA Anaheim Ducks | -319 | -0.4 | O 6 |
| WPG Winnipeg Jets | +319 | +0.4 | U 6 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Pp Vs Pk (+9.72): This factor contributes +9.72 to the projection, favoring Jets.
- Penalty Kill Diff (+8.18): This factor contributes +8.18 to the projection, favoring Jets.
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Jets.
- Shots Per Game Diff (+4.58): This factor contributes +4.58 to the projection, favoring Jets.
Recent Trends
Jets Trends:
- Winnipeg Jets is 3-17 ATS at home as a favorite
- Winnipeg Jets is 3-17 ATS favorite
- Winnipeg Jets is 11-1 ATS underdog
- The over is 7-1 in Winnipeg Jets's games on a 3+ game losing streak
- Winnipeg Jets is 1-7 straight up with 3+ days rest
Ducks Trends:
- Anaheim Ducks is 1-6 ATS favorite
- The over is 4-1 in Anaheim Ducks's games on the road on a back-to-back
- The over is 4-1 in Anaheim Ducks's games on a back-to-back
- The over is 6-3 in Anaheim Ducks's games after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 8-4 in Anaheim Ducks's games vs teams above .500
Head-to-Head:
- Winnipeg Jets is 0-3 straight up vs Anaheim Ducks
Matchup Edges
Jets
Advantages
- Strong 3-0-1 (1-0-1) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Riding a 3-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Elite goaltending allowing just 2.5 GPG
- Superior goaltending with a 0.924 save percentage
Disadvantages
- Poor home record at just 40% win rate at this venue
- Model win probability of only 24% despite home advantage
- Model sees 1.9-point edge favoring the away side
Ducks
Advantages
- Strong 2-1-0 (1-1-0) record (67% win rate) this season
- Dangerous power play at 3846.2%
- Reliable penalty kill at 8181.8%
- Away Streak contributes -1.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Goaltending allows 3.3 GPG -- exploitable on the road
- Averaging 3.3 GPG allowed on defense