San Jose Sharks vs St. Louis Blues
Friday, October 9, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Special teams give the Blues a clear edge in this matchup. The home squad posts a power‑play conversion rate of 12.5 while the Sharks’ penalty‑kill sits at 75.0, and the visitors manage a 25.0 power‑play success versus the Blues’ 90.0 penalty‑kill efficiency. Those divergent rates point to a likely advantage for St. Louis on the special‑teams board.
In net, Joel Hofer backs the Blues with a save percentage of 0.911 and a goals‑against average of 2.42, contrasted with Yaroslav Askarov’s 0.882 save rate and 3.38 goals‑against average for San Jose. Both confirmations are listed as unconfirmed, yet the raw figures still tilt the picture toward the home netminder’s superior performance metrics.
The ATS record adds another layer of confidence: the St. Louis Blues is 12‑3 ATS underdog, a winning percentage of 0.8 across a sample size of 15. That strong track record against the spread suggests the Blues consistently outperform expectations even when listed as the underdog.
The pick is the Blues at -142, play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Joel Hofer (Blues) and Yaroslav Askarov (Sharks) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SJ San Jose Sharks | +120 | +1.5 | O 5.5 |
| STL St. Louis Blues | -142 | -1.5 | U 5.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SJ San Jose Sharks | +168 | +2.2 | O 5.3 |
| STL St. Louis Blues | -168 | -2.2 | U 5.3 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Penalty Kill Diff (+15.00): This factor contributes +15.00 to the projection, favoring Blues.
- Power Play Diff (-12.50): This factor contributes -12.50 to the projection, favoring Sharks.
- Market Total Signal (+5.50): This factor contributes +5.50 to the projection, favoring Blues.
- Shots Per Game Diff (+2.67): This factor contributes +2.67 to the projection, favoring Blues.
Recent Trends
Blues Trends:
- St. Louis Blues is 6-0 ATS at home on a back-to-back
- St. Louis Blues is 8-2 ATS at home after a loss
- St. Louis Blues is 6-0 ATS on a back-to-back
- St. Louis Blues is 12-3 ATS underdog
- St. Louis Blues is 5-0 ATS on a 3+ game losing streak
Sharks Trends:
- The over is 2-7 in San Jose Sharks's games after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 4-13 in San Jose Sharks's games vs teams above .500
- The over is 12-4 in San Jose Sharks's games vs teams below .500
- San Jose Sharks is 2-6 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- San Jose Sharks is 11-5 ATS vs teams below .500
Head-to-Head:
- St. Louis Blues is 1-2 ATS vs San Jose Sharks
- The over is 1-2 in St. Louis Blues's games vs San Jose Sharks
- St. Louis Blues is 2-1 straight up vs San Jose Sharks
Matchup Edges
Blues
Advantages
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Dominant power play converting at 1250.0%
- Strong penalty kill at 9000.0%
- Penalty Kill Diff contributes +15.00 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-2-0 (0-0-0) (33% win rate)
- Goaltending allows 3.3 GPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Limited offense averaging just 2.3 GPG
Sharks
Advantages
- Strong 2-1-0 (2-0-0) record (67% win rate) this season
- Dangerous power play at 2500.0%
- Reliable penalty kill at 7500.0%
- Power Play Diff contributes -12.50 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Goaltending allows 4.0 GPG -- exploitable on the road
- Model win probability of just 37% on the road