Utah Mammoth vs New York Rangers
Sunday, October 4, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Special teams dominate the narrative, with the Rangers posting a 28.571 % power‑play conversion rate while the Mammoth sit at a flawless 100.0 % penalty‑kill efficiency; the Mammoth’s power‑play sparkles at 71.429 % and the Rangers also boast a perfect 100.0 % penalty kill.
The moneyline market aligns closely with the model’s confidence: the line sits at –130 for the home side, and the model assigns a 0.779 win probability to the Rangers, generating a 0.214 edge that the signal classifies as a “play.” The market’s pricing therefore reflects the underlying advantage without discount.
When the scoring margins are examined, the Rangers average 2.333 points per game while allowing 1.333, yielding a modest 1.0 margin. The Mammoth, by contrast, generate 5.0 points and concede only 0.5, producing a 4.5 margin. The gap between the two teams’ margins registers at –3.5, underscoring the Rangers’ relative shortfall in offensive output despite solid defense.
The pick is Rangers –130, play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Igor Shesterkin (Rangers) and Karel Vejmelka (Mammoth) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Utah Mammoth | +110 | +1.5 | O 5.5 |
| NYR New York Rangers | -130 | -1.5 | U 5.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Utah Mammoth | +354 | +0.8 | O 7.3 |
| NYR New York Rangers | -354 | -0.8 | U 7.3 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Power Play Diff (-42.86): This factor contributes -42.86 to the projection, favoring Mammoth.
- Pp Vs Pk (-42.86): This factor contributes -42.86 to the projection, favoring Mammoth.
- Shots Per Game Diff (-8.17): This factor contributes -8.17 to the projection, favoring Mammoth.
- Faceoff Pct Diff (-5.67): This factor contributes -5.67 to the projection, favoring Mammoth.
Recent Trends
Rangers Trends:
- New York Rangers is 5-1 ATS at home on a back-to-back
- New York Rangers is 2-8 straight up at home on a back-to-back
- New York Rangers is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games
- New York Rangers is 0-5 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
- The over is 1-5 in New York Rangers's games at home on a back-to-back
Mammoth Trends:
- Utah Mammoth is 6-1 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Utah Mammoth is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games
- The over is 1-4 in Utah Mammoth's games on the road on a back-to-back
- Utah Mammoth is 4-1 ATS with 3+ days rest
- Utah Mammoth is 11-3 straight up favorite
Matchup Edges
Rangers
Advantages
- Strong 2-1-0 (1-0-0) overall record (67% win rate)
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Elite goaltending allowing just 1.3 GPG
- Superior goaltending with a 0.957 save percentage
- Dominant power play converting at 2857.1%
Disadvantages
- Limited offense averaging just 2.3 GPG
- Opponent's 5.0 GPG offense exceeds home defense (1.3 GPG) by 3.7
- Model sees 0.7-point edge favoring the away side
Mammoth
Advantages
- Strong 2-0-0 (1-0-0) record (100% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 5.0 GPG
- Stout goaltending allowing just 0.5 GPG
- Strong goaltending with a 0.970 save percentage
- Dangerous power play at 7142.9%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- On a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest for a road game
- Model win probability of just 22% on the road