Utah Mammoth vs Columbus Blue Jackets
Saturday, October 3, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor is the moneyline edge the market offers versus the model’s projection. The market line sits at -108 for the Columbus Blue Jackets, while the model assigns a home‑win probability of 0.661, creating a calculated edge of 0.142 in favor of the home side. That disparity alone supplies a clear rationale for taking the moneyline on the Blue Jackets.
The goaltending duel pits Jet Greaves against Karel Vejmelka. Greaves carries a .907 save percentage and a 2.59 goals‑against average, while Vejmelka posts a .896 save percentage and a 2.68 goals‑against average. Both starts remain unconfirmed, but the statistical edge sits with the home netminder’s higher save rate and slightly lower GAA.
Columbus’s recent ATS performance offers a contrary narrative. The Blue Jackets are 4‑11 against the spread at home after a loss, a 0.267 win percentage over a sample of 15 games. That trend suggests vulnerability when betting the spread, though it does not diminish the strength of the moneyline advantage identified earlier.
The pick is the Columbus Blue Jackets on the moneyline at -108, and the recommendation is to play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Jet Greaves (Blue Jackets) and Karel Vejmelka (Mammoth) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Utah Mammoth | -112 | -1.5 | O 6.5 |
| CBJ Columbus Blue Jackets | -108 | +1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Utah Mammoth | +195 | -0.3 | O 12 |
| CBJ Columbus Blue Jackets | -195 | +0.3 | U 12 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Faceoff Pct Diff (-16.84): This factor contributes -16.84 to the projection, favoring Mammoth.
- Shots Per Game Diff (-9.00): This factor contributes -9.00 to the projection, favoring Mammoth.
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Blue Jackets.
- Goals Against Diff (+3.00): This factor contributes +3.00 to the projection, favoring Blue Jackets.
Recent Trends
Blue Jackets Trends:
- Columbus Blue Jackets is 1-4 ATS at home on a back-to-back
- Columbus Blue Jackets is 1-5 ATS on a 3+ game losing streak
- Columbus Blue Jackets is 4-11 ATS at home after a loss
- Columbus Blue Jackets is 1-5 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- Columbus Blue Jackets is 1-4 ATS on a back-to-back
Mammoth Trends:
- Utah Mammoth is 6-1 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 1-4 in Utah Mammoth's games on the road on a back-to-back
- Utah Mammoth is 4-1 ATS with 3+ days rest
- The over is 4-1 in Utah Mammoth's games with 3+ days rest
- The over is 1-4 in Utah Mammoth's games on a back-to-back
Matchup Edges
Blue Jackets
Advantages
- Strong 1-0-0 (1-0-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Strong offense averaging 6.0 GPG
- Dominant power play converting at 6666.7%
- Strong penalty kill at 10000.0%
Disadvantages
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.885 save percentage
- Poor home record at just 17% win rate at this venue
- Allowing 3.0 GPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Mammoth
Advantages
- Strong 1-0-0 (1-0-0) record (100% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 6.0 GPG
- Strong goaltending with a 1.000 save percentage
- Dangerous power play at 6666.7%
- Reliable penalty kill at 10000.0%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Road win rate of only 25% away from home
- Model win probability of just 34% on the road