St. Louis Blues vs San Jose Sharks

This NHL matchup features St. Louis Blues (31-30-11 (18-12-7)) traveling to take on San Jose Sharks (33-31-7 (17-12-5)) at SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose, CA. The statistical profiles of these two teams are remarkably similar this season. Neither side holds a decisive scoring margin advantage, which points to a game that will likely be decided in the closing minutes. Sharks averages 3.0 goals per game, but they face Blues goaltending that holds opponents to 3.1 GA/G. The visitors' netminding could limit the home team's Goal-scoring output. Conversely, Blues at 2.6 GPG faces a stiff test against Sharks's goaltending (3.5 GA/G allowed). The visitors will need to be efficient with their scoring chances to stay competitive. Home ice advantage is worth approximately 3.0 goals in NHL, and Sharks will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Sharks to win by approximately 1.1 goals. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Sharks winning by 4 to losing by 1. Our model favors Sharks on the moneyline at -110, projecting a 89% win probability. Hockey's tight margins make the moneyline the sharpest angle in this matchup rather than the puck line.

Sharks sits at 33-31-7 (17-12-5) this season — a team that can beat anyone on a good night but has dropped games they probably should have won. Home court could be the catalyst they need to put a full game together. At 31-30-11 (18-12-7), Blues has been a middle-of-the-pack team with both impressive wins and puzzling losses. Road games amplify those inconsistencies, making this a prove-it spot for the visitors. This matchup will come down to who can impose their style of play. Defensive intensity and rebounding will be key factors in determining which team walks away with the victory.