Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 8, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NFL matchup features Dallas Cowboys (3-5 (1-3)) traveling to take on Indianapolis Colts (2-6 (1-2)) at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN. The numbers favor Cowboys, who carry a 8.4-point scoring margin advantage into this matchup. Colts will need to play above their season average to keep this game competitive.
Colts's 20.1 PPG offense runs into a Cowboys defense that surrenders only 26.6 PPG. Expect the home team to face tougher sledding than usual on the offensive end. Cowboys's 27.4 PPG offense will be tested by a Colts defense surrendering just 27.8 PPG. The road team may need to manufacture points to keep pace.
The 2.0-point Home field advantage in NFL is baked into our model, and Colts will aim to make that factor count with crowd energy. Cowboys is favored by 6.8 points in our projection, a margin that could go either way depending on game flow and execution. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Colts losing by 0 to losing by 0.
This is one of those games where the oddsmakers have it dialed in. Our model sees no significant spread edge, but secondary markets like the total could still offer a narrow window of value.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL Dallas Cowboys | -125 ↑ | -1.5 ↑ | O 52.5 |
| IND Indianapolis Colts | +105 ↓ | +1.5 ↓ | U 52.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL Dallas Cowboys | -227 | -6.8 | O 50.9 |
| IND Indianapolis Colts | +227 | +6.8 | U 50.9 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Cowboys has a +8.4 scoring margin edge
- Home field advantage adds 2.0 points for Colts
- Expected scoring: Colts ~23, Cowboys ~28 (total ~51)
Recent Trends
Colts's 2-6 (1-2) record tells the story of a team that has faced significant challenges this year. However, home games offer a reset. They've lost 4 straight, raising concerns about their confidence and execution heading into this one.
It's been a difficult season for Cowboys at 3-5 (1-3). Traveling to face Colts presents a significant challenge.
Venue splits matter: Colts wins 33% at home while Cowboys wins 50% on the road. The gap between home and away performance can be a decisive factor.
Matchup Edges
Colts
Advantages
- Home field advantage worth 2.0 points in our model
- Net scoring margin of -7.6 PPG per game
- Win probability of 31% per model projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 2-6 (1-2) (25% win rate)
- Defense allows 27.8 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- On a 4-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
- Poor home record at just 33% win rate at this venue
Cowboys
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 27.4 PPG
- Net scoring margin of +0.8 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 69%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 2.0 point of home field advantage
- Struggling with a 3-5 (1-3) record (38% win rate)
- Defense allows 26.6 PPG -- exploitable on the road