Montana State Bobcats vs 23 BYU Cougars
Friday, November 13, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The shooting profile gives BYU a decisive edge, with a 45.833 % three‑point clip and a 54.688 % field‑goal conversion versus Montana State’s 37.097 % from deep and 45.833 % overall. That disparity in efficiency should translate into a comfortable scoring advantage at the Marriott Center.
Beyond the numbers, BYU’s performance against sub‑.500 opposition is virtually untouchable, posting a 36‑1 straight‑up record and a 0.973 win percentage in a 37‑game sample. The Cougars have proven they can dominate teams with losing records, a trend that reinforces confidence in their ability to cover any sizable spread.
The scoring margin gap further illustrates the disparity: BYU averages 100.0 points while allowing 77.333, yielding a 22.667‑point margin, whereas Montana State posts 78.5 points for and 77.0 points against, a slim 1.5‑point margin. The resulting 21.167‑point differential underscores the likely blowout scenario.
Given the evidence, the model issues a pass; there is no line and no side to take.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTST Montana State Bobcats | +2000 | +23.5 | O 164.5 |
| BYU BYU Cougars | -6500 | -23.5 | U 164.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTST Montana State Bobcats | +646 | +19.2 | O 178.5 |
| BYU BYU Cougars | -646 | -19.2 | U 178.5 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+162.50): This factor contributes +162.50 to the projection, favoring BYU.
- Combined Tempo (+83.21): This factor contributes +83.21 to the projection, favoring BYU.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+24.01): This factor contributes +24.01 to the projection, favoring BYU.
- Pace Mismatch (+21.83): A 21.83-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with BYU's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
Recent Trends
BYU Trends:
- BYU Cougars is 36-1 straight up vs teams below .500
- BYU Cougars is 62-7 straight up after a win
- BYU Cougars is 86-17 straight up with 2+ days rest
- BYU Cougars is 89-18 straight up home
- BYU Cougars is 65-11 straight up in non-conference games
Montana St Trends:
- Montana State Bobcats is 2-8 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Montana State Bobcats is 2-8 straight up underdog
- Montana State Bobcats is 7-17 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Montana State Bobcats is 13-34 straight up vs teams above .500
- Montana State Bobcats is 10-26 straight up in non-conference games
Matchup Edges
BYU
Advantages
- Strong 3-0 (2-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 100.0 PPG
- Riding a 3-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Home record of 83% win rate at this venue
Disadvantages
- Defense allows 77.3 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Model sees 2.3-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 77.3 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Montana St
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 78.5 PPG
- 6-day rest advantage over opponent's 3 days
- Rest Advantage contributes -3.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Defense allows 77.0 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Facing a home offense (100.0 PPG) that exceeds road defense (77.0 PPG) by 23.0