Monmouth Hawks vs Quinnipiac Bobcats
Friday, November 13, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor in this contest is Quinnipiac’s superior shooting profile. The Bobcats connect on 42.373 % of their three‑point attempts while Monmouth manages only 30.769 % from beyond the arc. Although Monmouth edges Quinnipiac in overall field‑goal efficiency at 42.982 % versus 41.143 %, the disparity in long‑range accuracy gives the home team a clear edge in spacing and scoring potential.
The moneyline market reflects that edge. The market line sits at -115 for Quinnipiac, and the model assigns a win probability of 0.796 to the Bobcats. The calculated edge of 0.261 reinforces the “play” strength, confirming that the betting line undervalues Quinnipiac’s chances to secure the victory.
Ball security further tips the scales. Quinnipiac forces turnovers at a rate of 11.333 per game, while Monmouth hands the ball away at 15.5 per game, a differential of -4.167. The turnover disparity should limit Monmouth’s scoring opportunities and give Quinnipiac more chances to capitalize on its efficient three‑point shooting.
Quinnipiac is a play at -115.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MONM Monmouth Hawks | -105 | +1.5 | O 144.5 |
| QUIN Quinnipiac Bobcats | -115 | -1.5 | U 144.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MONM Monmouth Hawks | +390 | +8.7 | O 132.5 |
| QUIN Quinnipiac Bobcats | -390 | -8.7 | U 132.5 |
Our Picks
Play to -9.5
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+144.50): This factor contributes +144.50 to the projection, favoring Quinnipiac.
- Combined Tempo (+72.38): This factor contributes +72.38 to the projection, favoring Quinnipiac.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+8.85): This factor contributes +8.85 to the projection, favoring Quinnipiac.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+8.50): Quinnipiac's scoring margin advantage of 8.50 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
Quinnipiac Trends:
- Quinnipiac Bobcats is 0-9 ATS after a win
- Quinnipiac Bobcats is 3-12 ATS at home as a favorite
- Quinnipiac Bobcats is 0-7 ATS double-digit favorite
- Quinnipiac Bobcats is 21-5 straight up in non-conference games
- Quinnipiac Bobcats is 3-12 ATS home
Monmouth Trends:
- Monmouth Hawks is 2-8 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- Monmouth Hawks is 0-6 straight up vs ranked opponents
- Monmouth Hawks is 6-23 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Monmouth Hawks is 11-43 straight up vs teams above .500
- Monmouth Hawks is 2-8 straight up on a back-to-back
Head-to-Head:
- Quinnipiac Bobcats is 1-2 straight up vs Monmouth Hawks
Matchup Edges
Quinnipiac
Advantages
- Strong 2-1 (1-0) overall record (67% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +144.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Defense allows 76.0 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Negative scoring margin of -8.0 PPG per game
- Allowing 76.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Monmouth
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -5.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -16.5 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 20%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 0-2 (0-0) record (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 81.0 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Anemic offense at just 64.5 PPG limits scoring ceiling
- Turnover issues at 15.5 per game, amplified in road environments