Loyola Marymount Lions vs South Alabama Jaguars
Friday, November 13, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The standout factor is the total points projection blowing past the market line. The model sees a combined 159.5 points for South Alabama and LMU, yet the sportsbook has set the over/under at 142.5, a 17.0‑point gap, and the model’s own total estimate climbs to 165.0.
Scoring margins further tilt the balance toward the visitors. South Alabama averages 76.333 points while allowing 80.667, yielding a –4.333 margin. LMU, by contrast, puts up 88.667 points and concedes just 73.333, producing a +15.333 margin. The resulting gap of –19.667 points underscores LMU’s offensive advantage and defensive sting.
Shooting profiles reinforce the edge. LMU shoots 31.068 % from three‑point range compared with South Alabama’s 27.143 %. Though South Alabama edges the field goal percentage at 47.283 % versus LMU’s 45.662 %, the higher three‑point efficiency aligns with the projected scoring surge.
LMU is the pick on the moneyline at -112 – a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMU Loyola Marymount Lions | -112 | -1.5 | O 142.5 |
| USA South Alabama Jaguars | -108 | +1.5 | U 142.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMU Loyola Marymount Lions | -160 | -3.4 | O 165 |
| USA South Alabama Jaguars | +160 | +3.4 | U 165 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+142.50): This factor contributes +142.50 to the projection, favoring South Alabama.
- Combined Tempo (+79.75): This factor contributes +79.75 to the projection, favoring South Alabama.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-19.77): This factor contributes -19.77 to the projection, favoring LMU.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-19.67): LMU's scoring margin advantage of 19.67 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
South Alabama Trends:
- South Alabama Jaguars is 35-8 straight up in non-conference games
- South Alabama Jaguars is 1-4 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- South Alabama Jaguars is 38-12 straight up vs teams below .500
- South Alabama Jaguars is 65-26 straight up home
- South Alabama Jaguars is 38-13 straight up after a win
LMU Trends:
- Loyola Marymount Lions is 1-5 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Loyola Marymount Lions is 2-8 straight up in their last 10 games
- Loyola Marymount Lions is 10-33 straight up vs teams above .500
- Loyola Marymount Lions is 10-32 straight up in conference games
- Loyola Marymount Lions is 5-15 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
Matchup Edges
South Alabama
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 76.3 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +142.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-2 (1-1) (33% win rate)
- Defense allows 80.7 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Poor home record at just 43% win rate at this venue
- Opponent's 88.7 PPG offense exceeds home defense (80.7 PPG) by 8.0
LMU
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 88.7 PPG
- SOS-Adjusted Margin contributes -19.77 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +15.3 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-2 (1-1) record (33% win rate)
- Road win rate of only 25% away from home