Central Connecticut Blue Devils vs Sacred Heart Pioneers
Friday, November 13, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The scoring‑margin gap defines the story of this contest. Sacred Heart is scoring an average of 88.0 points while surrendering just 64.667, a differential of 23.333, whereas C Connecticut manages only 61.0 points and concedes 80.333, leaving it at –19.333; the resulting gap of 42.667 points makes the matchup a lopsided affair on paper.
The moneyline market already reflects that disparity, listing Sacred Heart as a –205 favorite. The model assigns an 85.3 % win probability to the home side, creating an edge of 0.18 over the market line and reinforcing the “play” designation for the pick.
Shooting efficiency adds another layer of confidence. Sacred Heart’s three‑point conversion sits at 32.877 % compared with C Connecticut’s 32.787 %, and its overall field‑goal percentage is 43.81 % versus 39.766 % for the visitors. The modest but real advantage in both perimeter and interior scoring further tilts the balance toward the Pioneers.
The pick is Sacred Heart at –205, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCSU Central Connecticut Blue Devils | +170 | +4.5 | O 146.5 |
| SHU Sacred Heart Pioneers | -205 | -4.5 | U 146.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCSU Central Connecticut Blue Devils | +578 | +24.9 | O 149 |
| SHU Sacred Heart Pioneers | -578 | -24.9 | U 149 |
Our Picks
Play to -25.6
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+146.50): This factor contributes +146.50 to the projection, favoring Sacred Heart.
- Combined Tempo (+73.50): This factor contributes +73.50 to the projection, favoring Sacred Heart.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+42.67): Sacred Heart's scoring margin advantage of 42.67 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+40.00): This factor contributes +40.00 to the projection, favoring Sacred Heart.
Recent Trends
Sacred Heart Trends:
- Sacred Heart Pioneers is 0-5 ATS after a win
- Sacred Heart Pioneers is 2-7 ATS at home as a favorite
- Sacred Heart Pioneers is 39-16 straight up vs teams below .500
- Sacred Heart Pioneers is 2-7 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Sacred Heart Pioneers is 2-7 ATS favorite
C Connecticut Trends:
- Central Connecticut Blue Devils is 0-6 straight up double-digit underdog
- The over is 1-4 in Central Connecticut Blue Devils's games after a loss vs a winning team
- Central Connecticut Blue Devils is 5-14 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Central Connecticut Blue Devils is 3-10 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Central Connecticut Blue Devils is 16-39 straight up in non-conference games
Head-to-Head:
- Sacred Heart Pioneers is 3-1 straight up at home vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils
- Sacred Heart Pioneers is 1-2 straight up on the road vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils
Matchup Edges
Sacred Heart
Advantages
- Strong 2-1 (1-1) overall record (67% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 88.0 PPG
- Home record of 75% win rate at this venue
- Elite defense allowing just 64.7 PPG
Disadvantages
- Allowing 64.7 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 15% model win probability
- Combined opponent scoring of 62.8 PPG creates variance risk
C Connecticut
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -15.67 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -19.3 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 15%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-2 (0-0) record (33% win rate)
- Defense allows 80.3 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Anemic offense at just 61.0 PPG limits scoring ceiling
- Facing a home offense (88.0 PPG) that exceeds road defense (80.3 PPG) by 7.7