UNC Greensboro Spartans vs UIC Flames
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Matchup Analysis
UIC’s shooting profile defines the clash, with the Flames converting 53.279 % from the field and 33.333 % from three‑point range, while the Spartans lag at 49.593 % overall and 28.302 % beyond the arc. That efficiency gap sets the tone for a game that could tilt on every bucket.
The market has opened a 20.5‑point spread in favor of UIC, yet the model values the gap at 13.5 points. The away side enjoys a 7.02‑point edge, and the recommendation strength is a play. The discrepancy between the bookmaker’s line and the model’s projection signals a clear opportunity to back UNC Greensboro on the spread.
On the totals front, the combined scoring expectation sits at 139.0 points, well under the bookmaker’s 150.5‑point line, a difference of –11.5 points. The model projects a much higher 168.0‑point total, suggesting that the market is undervaluing the offensive output for both sides.
The pick lands on UNC Greensboro at +20.5 on the spread, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNCG UNC Greensboro Spartans | +1500 | +20.5 | O 150.5 |
| UIC UIC Flames | -3600 | -20.5 | U 150.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNCG UNC Greensboro Spartans | +685 | +13.5 | O 168 |
| UIC UIC Flames | -685 | -13.5 | U 168 |
Our Picks
Play to +14.2
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+150.50): This factor contributes +150.50 to the projection, favoring UIC.
- Combined Tempo (+69.50): This factor contributes +69.50 to the projection, favoring UIC.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+15.74): This factor contributes +15.74 to the projection, favoring UIC.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+14.00): UIC's scoring margin advantage of 14.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
UIC Trends:
- The over is 0-5 in UIC Flames's games vs teams below .500
- UIC Flames is 5-15 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- UIC Flames is 33-11 straight up vs teams below .500
- The over is 1-4 in UIC Flames's games at home after a loss
- The over is 1-5 in UIC Flames's games underdog
UNC Greensboro Trends:
- UNC Greensboro Spartans is 1-4 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- UNC Greensboro Spartans is 8-25 straight up in non-conference games
- The over is 4-1 in UNC Greensboro Spartans's games in non-conference games
- UNC Greensboro Spartans is 1-4 straight up on a back-to-back
- UNC Greensboro Spartans is 1-4 straight up vs ranked opponents
Matchup Edges
UIC
Advantages
- Strong 2-0 (2-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 87.5 PPG
- Elite defense allowing just 51.5 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +150.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 80.5 PPG offense exceeds home defense (51.5 PPG) by 29.0
- Model sees 7.0-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 51.5 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
UNC Greensboro
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 80.5 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 58.5 PPG
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -7.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Road win rate of only 33% away from home
- Facing a home offense (87.5 PPG) that exceeds road defense (58.5 PPG) by 29.0