South Carolina Upstate Spartans vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the massive spread disparity between the Vegas line and the model, with the market posting a 10.5‑point advantage for SC Upstate while the model values Coastal at –7.3, creating a 17.81‑point edge for the away side and prompting a “play” recommendation. Both teams entered the game winless, Coastal at 0‑2 (0‑1) and SC Upstate also at 0‑2 (0‑1), underscoring the significance of the spread gap.
Coastal’s shooting profile highlights serious inefficiency, registering a field‑goal percentage of 36.29 and a three‑point rate of 23.913, while SC Upstate shows a more respectable 44.643 field‑goal percentage and a 24.39 three‑point conversion. The Spartans’ modest edge from beyond the arc pairs with a solid overall shooting performance, suggesting they can outpace Coastal’s offense on the floor.
South Carolina Upstate Spartans are 3‑24 straight up after a loss versus a winning team, a win percentage of 0.111 across a 27‑game sample, according to the ATS trend. The description “South Carolina Upstate Spartans is 3-24 straight up after a loss vs a winning team” captures the difficulty the Spartans have had covering spreads this season.
Pick SC Upstate at +10.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPST South Carolina Upstate Spartans | +360 | +10.5 | O 149.5 |
| CCU Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | -470 | -10.5 | U 149.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UPST South Carolina Upstate Spartans | -240 | -7.3 | O 131 |
| CCU Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | +240 | +7.3 | U 131 |
Our Picks
Play to -6.5
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+149.50): This factor contributes +149.50 to the projection, favoring Coastal.
- Combined Tempo (+75.88): This factor contributes +75.88 to the projection, favoring Coastal.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-20.94): This factor contributes -20.94 to the projection, favoring SC Upstate.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-20.50): SC Upstate's scoring margin advantage of 20.50 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
Coastal Trends:
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers is 5-1 ATS vs teams above .500
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers is 1-5 ATS vs teams below .500
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers is 4-1 ATS underdog
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers is 2-5 ATS at home as a favorite
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers is 26-13 straight up in non-conference games
SC Upstate Trends:
- South Carolina Upstate Spartans is 3-24 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- South Carolina Upstate Spartans is 1-12 straight up on the road as an underdog
- South Carolina Upstate Spartans is 9-43 straight up vs teams above .500
- South Carolina Upstate Spartans is 1-12 straight up underdog
- South Carolina Upstate Spartans is 0-7 straight up double-digit underdog
Matchup Edges
Coastal
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +149.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -31.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 0-2 (0-1) (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 92.0 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Turnover-prone at 15.0 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Limited offense averaging just 61.0 PPG
- On a 3-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
SC Upstate
Advantages
- SOS-Adjusted Margin contributes -20.94 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -10.5 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 71%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 0-2 (0-1) record (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 80.5 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 17.5 per game, amplified in road environments
- 3-game losing streak compounds road challenges