Kansas City Roos vs Jacksonville Dolphins
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Jacksonville’s efficient shooting versus Kansas City’s high‑volume three‑point attack defines this contest. The Dolphins convert 48.092 % of field‑goal attempts while the Roos sit at 53.211 %, and Jacksonville’s three‑point mark of 33.962 % contrasts with Kansas City’s 46.667 % from deep. The home side’s balanced scoring should keep the game within reach of the spread despite the visitors’ perimeter firepower.
Kansas City’s recent form offers little comfort. The Roos are 1‑17 straight up on a three‑plus‑game losing streak, a win percentage of 0.056 across an 18‑game sample. Such a dismal record underscores the difficulty of betting against the spread on Kansas City, especially when the odds are already unfavorable.
The total outlook tilts sharply upward. The two teams have produced a combined 160.2 points, well above the market line of 146.5, a gap of 13.8 points. The model projects 161.5 total points, reinforcing the expectation of a high‑scoring affair that could easily eclipse the bookmaker’s estimate.
The pick is Jacksonville ‑5.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC Kansas City Roos | +195 | +5.5 | O 146.5 |
| JAX Jacksonville Dolphins | -238 | -5.5 | U 146.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC Kansas City Roos | +227 | +8.1 | O 161.5 |
| JAX Jacksonville Dolphins | -227 | -8.1 | U 161.5 |
Our Picks
Play to -8.9
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+146.50): This factor contributes +146.50 to the projection, favoring Jacksonville.
- Combined Tempo (+80.12): This factor contributes +80.12 to the projection, favoring Jacksonville.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+10.50): Jacksonville's scoring margin advantage of 10.50 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+10.06): This factor contributes +10.06 to the projection, favoring Jacksonville.
Recent Trends
Jacksonville Trends:
- Jacksonville Dolphins is 45-8 straight up vs teams below .500
- Jacksonville Dolphins is 27-5 straight up in non-conference games
- Jacksonville Dolphins is 34-10 straight up at home after a loss
- Jacksonville Dolphins is 8-2 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- Jacksonville Dolphins is 41-13 straight up with 3+ days rest
Kansas City Trends:
- Kansas City Roos is 2-14 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Kansas City Roos is 1-17 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- Kansas City Roos is 2-14 straight up underdog
- Kansas City Roos is 1-8 ATS in conference games
- The over is 7-1 in Kansas City Roos's games after a loss vs a winning team
Matchup Edges
Jacksonville
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 81.0 PPG
- Home record of 75% win rate at this venue
- Market Total Signal contributes +146.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 80.5 PPG offense exceeds home defense (74.5 PPG) by 6.0
- Allowing 74.5 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 31% model win probability
Kansas City
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 80.5 PPG
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -10.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -4.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Defense allows 84.5 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 16.5 per game, amplified in road environments