Green Bay Phoenix vs St. Thomas Tommies
Sunday, November 8, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Green Bay’s shooting edge is the most glaring factor, with the crew hitting 45.833 % from deep and 51.961 % overall compared with St Thomas’ 35.0 % from three and 43.636 % from the field. That disparity alone sets the tone for a game where the visitors can dictate tempo and score in bursts.
The market has opened the spread at 7.5 in favor of St Thomas, yet the model projects a -5.5 line for the home side, generating a 13.01‑point edge for Green Bay. The signal’s strength is a straight‑up “play,” indicating the market line is dramatically soft for the visitors and the model’s assessment favors the away side by a wide margin.
Turnover differentials further tilt the balance. St Thomas averages 8.5 giveaways per game, while Green Bay forces 15.0, a gap of –6.5. That extra six‑plus possessions per contest should translate into easy points and additional shot opportunities for the higher‑efficiency team.
Green Bay +7.5 play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB Green Bay Phoenix | +320 | +8.5 | O 149.5 |
| STMN St. Thomas Tommies | -410 | -8.5 | U 149.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB Green Bay Phoenix | -203 | -5.5 | O 153.5 |
| STMN St. Thomas Tommies | +203 | +5.5 | U 153.5 |
Our Picks
Play to -4.7
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+149.50): This factor contributes +149.50 to the projection, favoring St Thomas.
- Combined Tempo (+74.12): This factor contributes +74.12 to the projection, favoring St Thomas.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-15.50): Green Bay's scoring margin advantage of 15.50 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-15.37): This factor contributes -15.37 to the projection, favoring Green Bay.
Recent Trends
St Thomas Trends:
- St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies is 33-2 straight up in non-conference games
- St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies is 46-6 straight up vs teams below .500
- St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies is 50-8 straight up with 3+ days rest
- St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies is 27-6 straight up at home after a loss
- St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies is 65-15 straight up home
Green Bay Trends:
- Green Bay Phoenix is 6-31 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Green Bay Phoenix is 5-33 straight up in non-conference games
- Green Bay Phoenix is 5-31 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- Green Bay Phoenix is 10-41 straight up vs teams above .500
- Green Bay Phoenix is 18-68 straight up with 2+ days rest
Head-to-Head:
- St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies is 3-1 straight up vs Green Bay Phoenix
Matchup Edges
St Thomas (MN)
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Home record of 75% win rate at this venue
- Market Total Signal contributes +149.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Defense allows 77.0 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Model win probability of only 33% despite home advantage
- Negative scoring margin of -2.5 PPG per game
Green Bay
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 79.0 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 66.0 PPG
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -15.50 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Turnover issues at 15.0 per game, amplified in road environments
- Road win rate of only 25% away from home
- Facing a home offense (74.5 PPG) that exceeds road defense (66.0 PPG) by 8.5