UT Martin Skyhawks vs IU Indianapolis Jaguars
Saturday, November 7, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the moneyline edge, with IU Indy listed at +110 despite a model win probability of 0.913. The market places the home side at a modest +110, while the model assigns a 91.3 % chance of victory, generating an edge of 0.437 in IU Indy’s favor. That discrepancy alone makes the moneyline a clear play for the Hoosiers.
IU Indy’s shooting profile leans heavily on efficiency inside the arc, posting a field‑goal percentage of 48.193 % compared with UT Martin’s 46.97 %. However, the visitors excel from deep, converting 44.737 % of three‑point attempts versus IU Indy’s 29.73 %. The contrast suggests the Wildcats will rely on perimeter scoring while the Hoosiers control the paint.
When the totals are examined, the model projects a combined score of 211.0 points, far above the bookmaker’s line of 158.5. The market total sits 28.2 points lower than the model’s combined expectation of 186.8, indicating a massive under‑prediction. Such a gap points to a game that could easily erupt into a high‑scoring affair.
Pick IU Indy at +110, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTM UT Martin Skyhawks | -130 | -2.5 | O 161.5 |
| IUIN IU Indianapolis Jaguars | +110 | +2.5 | U 161.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTM UT Martin Skyhawks | +1054 | +26 | O 211 |
| IUIN IU Indianapolis Jaguars | -1054 | -26 | U 211 |
Our Picks
Play to -26.8
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+158.50): This factor contributes +158.50 to the projection, favoring IU Indy.
- Combined Tempo (+93.38): This factor contributes +93.38 to the projection, favoring IU Indy.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+28.29): This factor contributes +28.29 to the projection, favoring IU Indy.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+27.50): IU Indy's scoring margin advantage of 27.50 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
IU Indy Trends:
- IU Indianapolis Jaguars is 3-22 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- IU Indianapolis Jaguars is 3-30 straight up vs teams above .500
- IU Indianapolis Jaguars is 8-40 straight up in conference games
- IU Indianapolis Jaguars is 3-14 straight up after a win
- IU Indianapolis Jaguars is 1-6 straight up underdog
UT Martin Trends:
- UT Martin Skyhawks is 0-8 straight up on the road as an underdog
- UT Martin Skyhawks is 0-9 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- UT Martin Skyhawks is 0-8 straight up underdog
- UT Martin Skyhawks is 1-6 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- UT Martin Skyhawks is 1-6 straight up on a back-to-back
Matchup Edges
IU Indy
Advantages
- Strong 2-0 (2-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 113.0 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +158.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Poor home record at just 33% win rate at this venue
- Opponent's 98.0 PPG offense exceeds home defense (75.0 PPG) by 23.0
- Allowing 75.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
UT Martin
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 98.0 PPG
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -12.50 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +10.5 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 0-2 (0-0) record (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 87.5 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 16.0 per game, amplified in road environments
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home