Michigan Dearborn Wolves vs Cleveland State Vikings
Saturday, November 7, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The rest disparity defines this contest, with Cleveland State entering on four days’ rest while UM‑Dearborn arrives after an astonishing 1,741 days off. Neither team is facing back‑to‑back games, and both are free from a consecutive‑night grind.
Cleveland State’s shooting profile looks ragged; the Hilltoppers managed just 12.5 % from three‑point range and posted a field‑goal percentage of 32.759 % last outing. UM‑Dearborn, by contrast, connected on 31.746 % of its threes and hit 37.368 % overall from the floor, suggesting a significant offensive edge.
Ball security further tilts the balance. The home side turned the ball over at a rate of 14.0 per game, whereas the visitors have been sloppy, averaging 21.333 turnovers a contest – a differential of –7.333 in Cleveland State’s favor. Those extra possessions could prove decisive if the game stays close.
Given the lack of an available spread, total, or outright line, the model assigns a pass. The recommendation is a pass; there is no line and no side.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
Market odds not available from ESPN for this game.
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMDB Michigan Dearborn Wolves | -368 | -8.9 | O 107 |
| CLE Cleveland State Vikings | +368 | +8.9 | U 107 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Rest Advantage (-1737.00): The rest differential (1737.00) gives UM Dearborn fresher legs, which typically matters most in second-half execution.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-118.00): UM Dearborn's scoring margin advantage of 118.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-115.21): This factor contributes -115.21 to the projection, favoring UM Dearborn.
- Points Allowed Differential (+111.00): The defensive scoring differential (111.00 PPG) favors Cleveland St, who allows fewer points per game.
Recent Trends
Cleveland St Trends:
- Cleveland State Vikings is 44-11 straight up vs teams below .500
- Cleveland State Vikings is 13-1 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
- Cleveland State Vikings is 1-5 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Cleveland State Vikings is 65-24 straight up with 2+ days rest
- Cleveland State Vikings is 31-13 straight up at home after a loss
Matchup Edges
Cleveland St
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Points Allowed Differential contributes +111.00 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -61.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 0-1 (0-0) (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 111.0 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Limited offense averaging just 50.0 PPG
- Poor home record at just 20% win rate at this venue
UM Dearborn
Advantages
- 1741-day rest advantage over opponent's 4 days
- Rest Advantage contributes -1737.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +57.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Anemic offense at just 57.0 PPG limits scoring ceiling
- Turnover issues at 21.3 per game, amplified in road environments
- 3-game losing streak compounds road challenges