Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs Butler Bulldogs
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Butler’s superior shooting profile gives them a decisive edge. The Bulldogs convert 36.364 % of their three‑point attempts while the Knights limp at 15.152 %, and Butler’s overall field‑goal rate sits at 47.761 % compared with FDU’s 27.869 %. That disparity in efficiency alone points to a lopsided contest.
Butler also dominates the scoring margin picture. The Bulldogs average 96.0 points per game and allow just 60.0, producing a +36.0 margin. FDU manages only 45.0 points while surrendering 120.0, a –75.0 margin, creating a gap of 111.0 points between the two programs. Such a swing in both offense and defense underscores the expected blowout.
The market line sits at –27.5 for Butler, yet the model projects a far larger –38.3 spread, generating an edge of –10.83 in Butler’s favor. The spread signal confirms a strong “play” recommendation for the home side, indicating the betting line underestimates Butler’s dominance.
The pick is Butler ‑27.5, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| FDU Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | +2200 | +24.5 | O 153.5 |
| BTLR Butler Bulldogs | -8000 | -24.5 | U 153.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| FDU Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | +1170 | +38.3 | O 141 |
| BTLR Butler Bulldogs | -1170 | -38.3 | U 141 |
Our Picks
Play to -39.1
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+156.50): This factor contributes +156.50 to the projection, favoring Butler.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+111.00): Butler's scoring margin advantage of 111.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+108.40): This factor contributes +108.40 to the projection, favoring Butler.
- Combined Tempo (+80.25): This factor contributes +80.25 to the projection, favoring Butler.
Recent Trends
Butler Trends:
- Butler Bulldogs is 2-16 straight up at home vs a ranked opponent
- Butler Bulldogs is 28-5 straight up vs teams below .500
- Butler Bulldogs is 2-16 straight up vs ranked opponents
- Butler Bulldogs is 1-6 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Butler Bulldogs is 6-0 straight up double-digit favorite
FDU Trends:
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights is 9-48 straight up in non-conference games
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights is 2-14 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights is 5-22 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights is 7-30 straight up vs teams above .500
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights is 2-14 straight up underdog
Matchup Edges
Butler
Advantages
- Strong 1-0 (1-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 96.0 PPG
- Elite defense allowing just 60.0 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +156.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Turnover-prone at 20.0 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Poor home record at just 33% win rate at this venue
- Allowing 60.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
FDU
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -60.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -75.0 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 8%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 0-1 (0-0) record (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 120.0 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Anemic offense at just 45.0 PPG limits scoring ceiling
- 5-game losing streak compounds road challenges