Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs South Alabama Jaguars

This NCAAB matchup features Southern Miss Golden Eagles (15-15 (10-3)) traveling to take on South Alabama Jaguars (21-9 (10-3)) at Mitchell Center, Mobile, AL. The South Alabama hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Southern Miss by 5.8 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, South Alabama averages 74.9 points per game, which exceeds what the Southern Miss defense typically allows (74.1 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Southern Miss offense puts up 74.1 PPG and faces a South Alabama defense allowing 69.1 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and South Alabama will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects South Alabama to win by approximately 5.2 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from South Alabama winning by 18 to losing by 8. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

South Alabama has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 21-9 (10-3) record. Their 21-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. They've been solid on both ends of the floor and will look to continue that form in front of their home fans. Southern Miss sits at 15-15 (10-3) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.