Stonehill Skyhawks vs New Haven Chargers

This NCAAB matchup features Stonehill Skyhawks (9-18 (6-4)) traveling to take on New Haven Chargers (11-15 (7-5)) at Jeffery P. Hazell Athletics Center, West Haven, CT. The New Haven hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Stonehill by 3.1 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. New Haven averages 73.5 points per game, but they face a Stonehill defense that holds opponents to 75.0 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Stonehill scores 71.7 PPG but faces a New Haven defense that limits opponents to 73.7 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and New Haven will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects New Haven to win by approximately 5.6 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from New Haven winning by 18 to losing by 7. The market has this game at -2.5, but our model sees value on New Haven with a 3.1-point edge. Our line: New Haven -5.6. Combined with the total projection of 145 versus the market line of 120.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

New Haven has struggled this season at 11-15 (7-5). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Stonehill at 9-18 (6-4). Traveling to face New Haven presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.