Cal Poly Mustangs vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

This NCAAB matchup features Cal Poly Mustangs (11-16 (6-6)) traveling to take on Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (18-6 (14-1)) at Stan Sheriff Center, Honolulu, HI. The Hawai’i hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Cal Poly by 12.0 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Hawai’i averages 80.0 points per game, which exceeds what the Cal Poly defense typically allows (73.9 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Cal Poly offense puts up 73.1 PPG and faces a Hawai’i defense allowing 68.8 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Hawai’i will look to leverage their home crowd. The Hawai’i are heavy favorites in this one, with our model projecting a 12.0-point advantage. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Hawai’i winning by 24 to losing by 0. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Hawai’i has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 18-6 (14-1) record. Their 18-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the Hawai’i have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. It's been a difficult season for Cal Poly at 11-16 (6-6). Traveling to face Hawai’i presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.