UC Davis Aggies vs UC San Diego Tritons

This NCAAB matchup features UC Davis Aggies (15-10 (11-3)) traveling to take on UC San Diego Tritons (17-9 (7-5)) at LionTree Arena, San Diego, CA. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, UC San Diego averages 78.1 points per game, which exceeds what the UC Davis defense typically allows (71.0 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The UC Davis offense puts up 77.0 PPG and faces a UC San Diego defense allowing 70.2 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and UC San Diego will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects UC San Diego to win by approximately 5.1 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from UC San Diego winning by 18 to losing by 7. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

UC San Diego enters at 17-9 (7-5), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. UC Davis sits at 15-10 (11-3) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.