Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Sunday, November 15, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Injuries cripple the Cavaliers, with Evan Mobley (C), Sam Merrill (G) and Nae’Qwan Tomlin (F) all listed as out, leaving the home side three players unavailable while the Mavericks have none. The loss of a starting big, a backup guard and a forward erodes depth on both ends of the floor for Cleveland.
Dallas struggles to cover in conference play, posting a 3‑15 straight‑up record that translates to a win percentage of 0.167 over an 18‑game sample. The Mavericks’ poor performance against familiar foes underscores a systemic issue that has kept them well below expectations in these matchups.
Turnover differentials tilt toward Dallas, as the Cavaliers average 12.692 turnovers per game compared with the Mavericks’ 15.667, a gap of –2.974. The extra possessions generated by the visiting team could prove pivotal in a contest already weighed down by Cleveland’s depleted roster.
The final call is to pass; there is no line and no side. pass
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL Dallas Mavericks | +101 | +1.5 | O 231.5 |
| CLE Cleveland Cavaliers | -119 | -1.5 | U 231.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL Dallas Mavericks | +126 | +1.6 | O 229.9 |
| CLE Cleveland Cavaliers | -126 | -1.6 | U 229.9 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -1.6
Injury-adjusted total: 229.9
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+231.50): This factor contributes +231.50 to the projection, favoring Cavaliers.
- Combined Tempo (+114.47): This factor contributes +114.47 to the projection, favoring Cavaliers.
- Pace Mismatch (+7.21): A 7.21-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Cavaliers's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Per Game Differential (+3.60): Cavaliers's per-game scoring advantage (3.60 PPG) indicates a more productive offense.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Cavaliers Trends:
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 1-5 ATS double-digit favorite
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 22-8 straight up at home after a loss
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 58-21 straight up in non-conference games
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 71-29 straight up home
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 61-24 straight up with 2+ days rest
Mavericks Trends:
- Dallas Mavericks is 3-15 straight up in conference games
- The over is 3-12 in Dallas Mavericks's games after a loss
- The over is 1-7 in Dallas Mavericks's games on a 3+ game losing streak
- Dallas Mavericks is 1-4 ATS on the road after a win
- Dallas Mavericks is 4-13 straight up on the road as an underdog
Head-to-Head:
- Cleveland Cavaliers is 3-1 straight up vs Dallas Mavericks
Matchup Edges
Cavaliers
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 116.8 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +231.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 6-7 (4-2) (46% win rate)
- Defense allows 115.8 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Allowing 115.8 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Mavericks
Advantages
- Common Opponent Performance contributes -2.67 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +1.0 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 44%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Facing a home offense (116.8 PPG) that exceeds road defense (112.2 PPG) by 4.6
- Model win probability of just 44% on the road