Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Warriors head into Chase Center missing three starters – Draymond Green, Stephen Curry and Kristaps Porzingis are all out, leaving the home side with a home_out_count of 3 while the Suns have none. The loss of a premier ball‑handler, a defensive anchor and a rim‑protector forces San Francisco to rely on depth against a road‑test for Phoenix.
Phoenix Suns have stumbled as an underdog on the road, posting a 1‑10 straight‑up record away from home. That 0.091 win_pct comes from a sample_size of 11 games, underscoring how rarely the Suns cover as outsiders in hostile venues.
On the offensive side, Warriors shooting remains efficient with a home_three_pct of 40.0 and a home_fg_pct of 45.854. The Suns lag at 34.783 from beyond the arc but edge slightly in overall field‑goal accuracy at 46.479. The contrast in three‑point production suggests the Warriors can still generate points despite the absences.
The pick is Warriors -2.5, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHX Phoenix Suns | +130 | +2.5 | O 228.5 |
| GS Golden State Warriors | -155 | -2.5 | U 228.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHX Phoenix Suns | +320 | +6.5 | O 229.7 |
| GS Golden State Warriors | -320 | -6.5 | U 229.7 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -6.5
Injury-adjusted total: 229.7
Our Picks
Play to -7.4
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+228.50): This factor contributes +228.50 to the projection, favoring Warriors.
- Combined Tempo (+117.27): This factor contributes +117.27 to the projection, favoring Warriors.
- Common Opponent Performance (+27.00): When playing common opponents, Warriors outperformed by a 27.00-point margin, providing a transitive comparison signal.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+15.70): This factor contributes +15.70 to the projection, favoring Warriors.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Warriors Trends:
- Golden State Warriors is 1-6 ATS at home as a favorite
- Golden State Warriors is 1-6 ATS favorite
- Golden State Warriors is 1-6 straight up underdog
- The over is 4-1 in Golden State Warriors's games with 3+ days rest
- Golden State Warriors is 4-8 ATS with 2+ days rest
Suns Trends:
- Phoenix Suns is 1-10 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Phoenix Suns is 1-10 straight up underdog
- Phoenix Suns is 4-13 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- Phoenix Suns is 5-1 straight up favorite
- Phoenix Suns is 17-32 straight up on the road after a win
Head-to-Head:
- Golden State Warriors is 3-1 straight up at home vs Phoenix Suns
Matchup Edges
Warriors
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 117.7 PPG
- Riding a 3-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Market Total Signal contributes +228.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Turnover-prone at 16.3 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- Allowing 114.9 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 24% model win probability
Suns
Advantages
- 4-day rest advantage over opponent's 2 days
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -9.64 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -12.5 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-3 (1-1) record (25% win rate)
- Defense allows 124.5 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Road win rate of only 17% away from home