New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The shooting profile defines the dominant narrative in this contest, with Memphis outpacing New Orleans from beyond the arc while the Pelicans eke out a modest edge inside the paint. The Grizzlies connect on 41.558 % of their three‑point attempts, a stark contrast to the Pelicans’ 31.176 % conversion rate. Meanwhile, Memphis shoots 46.984 % from the field overall, just shy of New Orleans’ 50.0 % clip, underscoring a split where the home side boasts superior long‑range efficiency but trails in overall accuracy.
A broader statistical backdrop paints the Pelicans as a struggling unit, posting a 5‑29 straight‑up record while riding a three‑plus‑game losing streak. Their win percentage of .147 across a sample of 34 games signals deep‑seated difficulties in closing out contests, regardless of venue. The stark disparity between the teams’ recent fortunes adds weight to the Grizzlies’ advantage, especially as the away side battles to find consistency.
Injuries further tilt the balance, with the Pelicans sidelined by the loss of guard Jordan Poole and center Yves Missi. Both players sit out, raising the away team’s out count to two, while the Grizzlies enter the game unscathed with zero injuries reported. The depletion of New Orleans’ backcourt and interior options compounds the challenges they face on Memphis’ court.
The assessment is a pass; there is no line to take.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | +180 | +5.5 | O 233.5 |
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | -218 | -5.5 | U 233.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | +286 | +6.3 | O 240.8 |
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | -286 | -6.3 | U 240.8 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -6.3
Injury-adjusted total: 240.8
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+233.50): This factor contributes +233.50 to the projection, favoring Grizzlies.
- Combined Tempo (+116.17): This factor contributes +116.17 to the projection, favoring Grizzlies.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+13.33): Grizzlies's scoring margin advantage of 13.33 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+13.20): This factor contributes +13.20 to the projection, favoring Grizzlies.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Grizzlies Trends:
- Memphis Grizzlies is 2-11 straight up underdog
- Memphis Grizzlies is 1-7 straight up double-digit underdog
- Memphis Grizzlies is 16-33 straight up vs teams above .500
- Memphis Grizzlies is 5-2 ATS vs teams below .500
- Memphis Grizzlies is 8-4 ATS in non-conference games
Pelicans Trends:
- New Orleans Pelicans is 0-12 straight up on the road as an underdog
- New Orleans Pelicans is 11-52 straight up after a loss
- New Orleans Pelicans is 3-16 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- New Orleans Pelicans is 5-29 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- New Orleans Pelicans is 0-12 straight up underdog
Head-to-Head:
- Memphis Grizzlies is 6-2 straight up vs New Orleans Pelicans
- Memphis Grizzlies is 3-1 straight up at home vs New Orleans Pelicans
- Memphis Grizzlies is 3-1 straight up on the road vs New Orleans Pelicans
Matchup Edges
Grizzlies
Advantages
- Strong 6-0 (2-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 121.2 PPG
- Riding a 6-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Elite defense allowing just 106.0 PPG
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 119.7 PPG offense exceeds home defense (106.0 PPG) by 13.7
- Allowing 106.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 26% model win probability
Pelicans
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 119.7 PPG
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -11.83 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +1.8 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 2-4 (2-2) record (33% win rate)
- Defense allows 117.8 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 18.2 per game, amplified in road environments
- Facing a home offense (121.2 PPG) that exceeds road defense (117.8 PPG) by 3.3