Philadelphia 76ers vs Indiana Pacers
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The market’s 7.5‑point Pacers‑76ers spread versus a model‑generated –5.4 reveals a staggering –12.92‑point edge for Indiana, making the home side the clear play. With the market inflating the Pacers by more than a dozen points, the spread offers a rare value proposition that the model flags as a decisive advantage.
Indiana’s shooting efficiency further backs the upside. The Pacers clip 32.68 % from beyond the arc and post a 48.468 % field‑goal percentage, outpacing Philadelphia’s 31.655 % three‑point and 42.005 % overall rates. Those superior percentages suggest a scoring gap that can comfortably cover the inflated line.
Injury reports tilt the balance even more toward Indianapolis. Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell are listed out for the Pacers, while the 76ers lose center Tacko Fall. Despite two Pacers guards missing, the home club still holds a two‑player deficit versus Philadelphia’s single absence, underscoring depth and positional flexibility that can mitigate the loss.
The Pacers are the pick at +7.5 – play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | -278 | -7.5 | O 234.5 |
| IND Indiana Pacers | +225 | +7.5 | U 234.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | +118 | +5.4 | O 226.5 |
| IND Indiana Pacers | -118 | -5.4 | U 226.5 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -5.4
Injury-adjusted total: 226.5
Our Picks
Play to -6.3
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+234.50): This factor contributes +234.50 to the projection, favoring Pacers.
- Combined Tempo (+112.12): This factor contributes +112.12 to the projection, favoring Pacers.
- Common Opponent Performance (-19.00): When playing common opponents, 76ers outperformed by a 19.00-point margin, providing a transitive comparison signal.
- Pace Mismatch (+14.50): A 14.50-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Pacers's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Pacers Trends:
- Indiana Pacers is 1-10 straight up underdog
- Indiana Pacers is 0-7 straight up double-digit underdog
- Indiana Pacers is 1-9 straight up in their last 10 games
- Indiana Pacers is 6-14 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- Indiana Pacers is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games
76ers Trends:
- Philadelphia 76ers is 5-0 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 0-5 in Philadelphia 76ers's games after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 1-6 in Philadelphia 76ers's games double-digit underdog
- The over is 2-8 in Philadelphia 76ers's games after a loss
- The over is 2-8 in Philadelphia 76ers's games in their last 10 games
Head-to-Head:
- Indiana Pacers is 1-3 straight up at home vs Philadelphia 76ers
Matchup Edges
Pacers
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 116.5 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +234.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Allowing 115.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 46% model win probability
- Combined opponent scoring of 112.5 PPG creates variance risk
76ers
Advantages
- Strong 3-1 (2-1) record (75% win rate) this season
- Stout defense allowing just 107.0 PPG
- Common Opponent Performance contributes -19.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Facing a home offense (116.5 PPG) that exceeds road defense (107.0 PPG) by 9.5
- Model win probability of just 46% on the road