Memphis Grizzlies vs Sacramento Kings
Monday, October 26, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The pivotal edge in this contest lies in the divergent shooting efficiencies of the two clubs. The Kings are posting a three‑point percentage of 27.119 and a field‑goal percentage of 44.318, while Memphis is at 38.356 from deep and 46.927 overall. The Kings sit at 27.119 from three while Memphis shoots 38.356, and the field‑goal percentages sit at 44.318 for Sacramento and 46.927 for the Grizzlies.
Beyond raw shooting, the scoring margins paint a stark picture. Sacramento averages 108.0 points while conceding 124.5, yielding a margin of -16.5. Memphis scores 117.0 points and allows 105.5, producing a margin of 11.5. The resulting gap of -28.0 favors the visitors. Sacramento’s defense, allowing 124.5 points, is the league’s weakest, contrasted with Memphis conceding only 105.5, underscoring a defensive edge.
The injury report further tilts the balance. The Kings list three absentees: Ben Simmons (G), Dylan Cardwell (C) and Maxime Raynaud (C), a home_out_count of 3, whereas Memphis has zero players out. Losing a primary ball‑handler and two interior presences forces Sacramento to adjust rotations, while Memphis enjoys a full roster.
The Grizzlies are the clear choice, -4.5, and the model signals a play. A spread edge of 3.0 and a market spread of 4.5 give the -4.5 line added value.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | -175 | -4.5 | O 236.5 |
| SAC Sacramento Kings | +145 | +4.5 | U 236.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | -190 | -7.5 | O 225 |
| SAC Sacramento Kings | +190 | +7.5 | U 225 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +7.5
Injury-adjusted total: 225
Our Picks
Play to -6.6
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+236.50): This factor contributes +236.50 to the projection, favoring Kings.
- Combined Tempo (+113.75): This factor contributes +113.75 to the projection, favoring Kings.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-28.00): Grizzlies's scoring margin advantage of 28.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-27.48): This factor contributes -27.48 to the projection, favoring Grizzlies.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Kings Trends:
- Sacramento Kings is 11-23 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- The over is 5-2 in Sacramento Kings's games at home after a loss
- Sacramento Kings is 3-7 straight up underdog
- The over is 7-3 in Sacramento Kings's games underdog
- The over is 7-3 in Sacramento Kings's games in their last 10 games
Grizzlies Trends:
- Memphis Grizzlies is 1-9 straight up in their last 10 games
- Memphis Grizzlies is 0-6 straight up double-digit underdog
- Memphis Grizzlies is 3-11 straight up on the road as an underdog
- The over is 4-1 in Memphis Grizzlies's games after a loss vs a winning team
- Memphis Grizzlies is 1-5 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
Head-to-Head:
- Sacramento Kings is 1-2 straight up on the road vs Memphis Grizzlies
Matchup Edges
Kings
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +236.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -16.5 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 0-2 (0-1) (0% win rate)
- Defense allows 124.5 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- On a 3-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
Grizzlies
Advantages
- Strong 2-0 (1-0) record (100% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 117.0 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 105.5 PPG
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -28.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Turnover issues at 19.0 per game, amplified in road environments
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home