Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The most compelling angle is the rest edge, with the Knicks entering the game after 129 days of rest while the 76ers have logged 163 days, and neither club is coming off a back‑to‑back stretch.
The Knicks have been dominant when favored at home, posting a 14‑2 straight‑up record that translates to an 87.5 % win percentage in just 16 outings. The model assigns the home side a 56.3 % probability of victory and projects a spread of –3.1, modestly better than the market’s –4.5 line, generating a 1.4‑point spread edge.
Injury concerns tilt further toward New York, as the 76ers are missing two front‑court players—center Tacko Fall and forward Dominick Barlow—while the Knicks list zero absences. The model’s spread figure of –3.1 reflects this disparity, and the total sits at 232.3 versus the market’s 232.5, offering no clear advantage on the over/under.
Pass – no line and no side to recommend.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | +150 | +4.5 | O 232.5 |
| NY New York Knicks | -180 | -4.5 | U 232.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Philadelphia 76ers | +129 | +3.1 | O 232.3 |
| NY New York Knicks | -129 | -3.1 | U 232.3 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -3.1
Injury-adjusted total: 232.3
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+232.50): This factor contributes +232.50 to the projection, favoring Knicks.
- Combined Tempo (+119.13): This factor contributes +119.13 to the projection, favoring Knicks.
- Rest Advantage (-34.00): The rest differential (34.00) gives 76ers fresher legs, which typically matters most in second-half execution.
- Pace Mismatch (+4.77): A 4.77-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Knicks's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Knicks Trends:
- New York Knicks is 14-2 straight up at home as a favorite
- New York Knicks is 14-2 straight up favorite
- New York Knicks is 5-0 straight up double-digit favorite
- New York Knicks is 23-7 straight up at home after a loss
- New York Knicks is 5-1 ATS with 3+ days rest
76ers Trends:
- The over is 1-6 in Philadelphia 76ers's games double-digit underdog
- Philadelphia 76ers is 5-1 straight up favorite
- Philadelphia 76ers is 1-4 ATS with 3+ days rest
- Philadelphia 76ers is 11-22 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Philadelphia 76ers is 4-10 straight up on the road as an underdog
Head-to-Head:
- New York Knicks is 6-0 straight up on the road vs Philadelphia 76ers
- New York Knicks is 10-2 straight up vs Philadelphia 76ers
- New York Knicks is 3-1 ATS vs Philadelphia 76ers
Matchup Edges
Knicks
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 116.5 PPG
- Home record of 75% win rate at this venue
- Market Total Signal contributes +232.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Defense allows 124.2 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Negative scoring margin of -7.7 PPG per game
- Model sees 1.4-point edge favoring the away side
76ers
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 115.9 PPG
- 163-day rest advantage over opponent's 129 days
- Road win rate of 60% -- proven road warriors
- Rest Advantage contributes -34.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Defense allows 120.0 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- 4-game losing streak compounds road challenges