Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans
Thursday, March 12, 2026
Final Score Raptors 111 - Pelicans 122
Spread:
Total:
Matchup Analysis
This NBA matchup features Toronto Raptors (36-28 (17-16)) traveling to take on New Orleans Pelicans (21-45 (12-21)) at Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA. Raptors has been the stronger squad by the numbers, posting a 6.6-point per game advantage in scoring margin over Pelicans. Whether that edge translates to a cover depends on the market's pricing.
The offensive edge belongs to Pelicans at 115.5 PPG, a number that sits well above the 111.7 PPG the Raptors defense allows. Look for the home team to push the pace and attack early. Meanwhile, Raptors scores 113.7 PPG but faces a Pelicans defense that limits opponents to 120.2 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker.
The 3.0-point home court advantage in NBA is baked into our model, and Pelicans will aim to make that factor count with crowd energy. With just a 1.8-point projected margin, this game is about as close as it gets. Small swings in momentum will determine the winner. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Pelicans winning by 13 to losing by 17. Both teams play at an up-tempo pace, combining for an average environment of 115 PPG. Fast-paced games tend to produce more variance, which can benefit underdogs.
Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.
Team Comparison
TOR Raptors
Stat
NO Pelicans
36-28 (17-16)
Record
21-45 (12-21)
Last 10
113.7
PPG
115.5
111.7
Opp PPG
120.2
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR Toronto Raptors | -142 ↑ | -2.5 ↓ | O 235.5 |
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | +120 ↓ | +2.5 ↑ | U 235.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Mar 12, 4:47 AM
Opening line: +1.5 / O/U 232.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR Toronto Raptors | -154 | -1.8 | O 229.2 |
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | +154 | +1.8 | U 229.2 |
Source: Model Updated: Mar 11, 4:44 AM
Injury-adjusted spread: +1.8
Injury-adjusted total: 229.2
Our Picks
Spread
Pass
Model: 1.8 | Edge below threshold
Total
Pass
Model: 229.2 | Edge below threshold
Injury Calculator
Updated Mar 12, 2:11 AM
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Spread
Base model+1.8
Injury adj.0
Adjusted+1.8
Play to+0.9
Total
Base model229.2
Injury adj.0
Adjusted229.2
Recent Trends
It's been a frustrating campaign for Pelicans at 21-45 (12-21). While the record doesn't inspire confidence, playing at home gives them their best chance to spring a surprise result.
Raptors sits at 36-28 (17-16) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win.
Look for free throw shooting and second-chance points to be the swing factors in this game. The team that converts at the charity stripe and dominates the glass will have the inside track.
Matchup Edges
Pelicans
Advantages
- Playing at home with home court energy and familiarity
- High-powered offense at 115.5 PPG creates matchup problems
- Familiarity with home venue and routines
Disadvantages
- Losing record (21-45 (12-21)) signals fundamental issues
- Porous defense giving up 120.2 PPG is exploitable
Raptors
Advantages
- Nothing to lose as the visiting team
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Road environment creates additional challenges
- Travel and unfamiliar surroundings add difficulty